As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the CivicScience Election Mindset Tracker continues to monitor changes in the attitudes, opinions, and behaviors of American voters. How is the political climate affecting consumer well-being, economic outlook, and trust in American institutions? How closely are people following election news and what impact is it having? What issues are most important to voters? These are just some of the questions CivicScience is answering, going far beyond typical political race polling to predict how the election will affect people, markets, and the economy as a whole.
Here are three insights from the latest report.
1. Most Americans want the candidates to participate in at least one presidential debate.
After a period of uncertainty, Joe Biden and Donald Trump recently agreed to go head-to-head in two presidential debates this year, in June and September. This will be the first time since 1988 that the Commission on Presidential Debates will not oversee the debates. Data shows that the tradition of presidential debates is important to voters, with 77% of U.S. adults agreeing that Joe Biden and Donald Trump should participate in at least one debate.
Still, additional data shows that most adults agree the debates are unlikely to influence their voting behavior. However, a percentage of partisan voters are likely to switch to the opposite side (liberals voting for Trump, conservatives voting for Biden). This will be important in battleground states that will ultimately determine the election outcome. Analysis of over 1,000 consumer segments reveals who these voters are likely to be and how they are likely to vote in November. Learn more in the Consumer Mindset Tracker.
2. Growing disinterest in political news.
Attention to political news declined after both candidates won their party nominations in April. The disinterest in political news comes as more than half of American adults say they are “tired” of U.S. politics, up from last month. Attention to sports news, meanwhile, recovered last month.
Tell us your thoughts: Do you ever feel political fatigue after a major election or campaign cycle?
3. More Americans are focusing on reproductive rights as an election issue.
Crime tops the list of social issues that influence voters' votes. However, concern about reproductive rights as an election issue saw the largest month-to-month change, increasing by more than three points. The surge in concern likely reflects continuing restrictions on reproductive rights across the country, including abortion bans or tighter restrictions on abortion access in 21 states, efforts to reclassify mifepristone, and access to contraception further entering the political dialogue.
Click here to learn more about how to access the complete data provided each month in the Election Mindset Tracker, as well as a wealth of additional election-focused insights.
