A few weeks ago, NBC News reported that three top advisers to former President Donald Trump (including Virginia political veteran Chris LaCivita) had told donors at a closed-door meeting that both Virginia and Minnesota — two states now regularly counted in the Democratic column — were in play in 2024.
At the time, I saw a lot of pushback from Virginia Democrats on social media, saying there’s no way the Old Dominion would be up for grabs this year.
A new poll by Roanoke College that came out Wednesday suggests otherwise. As Cardinal’s Markus Schmidt reports, it shows Trump and President Joe Biden tied at 42% each in a two-way race in Virginia. When other candidates are listed, Biden holds a 40% to 38% lead over Trump, which is well within the margin of error.
Let’s walk through the poll numbers, and some Virginia electoral history, to put all this in context.
The Roanoke College poll has a good track record.
I learned my lesson on this the hard way, back in the dark ages of 1994, when Republican Oliver North was consistently leading Democrat Chuck Robb in the polls in their U.S. Senate race. Late in the campaign, Roanoke College came out with a poll that showed Robb ahead. I wrote a story for The Roanoke Times quoting experts who simply didn’t believe it. Turns out, that Roanoke College poll caught the first indication of a late wave toward Robb that carried him to victory. Crow is not a particularly tasty dish. I remember the bitter taste to this very day.
In 2016, the final Roanoke College poll of that year’s presidential race showed Hillary Clinton at 45% in Virginia with Trump at 38% and 9% undecided. She wound up taking the state 49.7% to 44.4% — so once the undecideds finally decided, Clinton’s lead of 7% in the poll became just under 5% in the actual results.
In 2020, there were a lot fewer undecideds and the Roanoke College poll was almost right on the money. The final poll put the race at Biden 53%, Trump 42% with 2% undecided. The final result in Virginia was Biden 54.1%, Trump 44.4%.
In both cases, the poll was pretty darned close, but, if anything, it ever so slightly understated Trump’s eventual support. This isn’t unique; pollsters across the country have seen this and attributed this to the “shy Trump” voter syndrome — voters who don’t want to admit to a pollster they’re voting for Trump.
If that syndrome is still a thing, then it’s quite possible the race in Virginia isn’t tied at all. Rather, Trump might have a slight lead (although still within the margin of error, polling-wise). Given the poll’s track record, Democrats shouldn’t be scoffing at these numbers.
On the contrary, if you’re a Biden supporter, now might be an appropriate time to freak out.
This poll is in line with other polls across the country
Remember: You should ignore the nationwide, head-to-head polls. That’s not how we elected presidents. We elect them state by state. And in one swing state after another, Trump has a narrow lead. These are some of the latest, as compiled by the Five Thirty Eight website. To simplify things, I’ll simplify show who’s out in front (and by how much) in the most recent polls.
- Arizona: Leads range from Biden up by 2 percentage points to Trump up by 4.
- Georgia: Trump leads by margins from 1 to 2 percentage points.
- Michigan: Trump leads by margins from 1 to 2 percentage points.
- Nevada: Trump leads by margins from 3 to 8 percentage points.
- New Hampshire: Polls range from showing the race tied to Biden up by 4 percentage points.
- Pennsylvania: Biden leads by margins from 2 to 3 percentage points.
- Wisconsin: Polls range from showing the race tied to Biden up by 2 percentage points.
These were all states that Biden carried in 2020. If those first four states, where Trump holds a narrow lead, went his way this time, he’d be the next president. Given the national picture, these Virginia numbers aren’t out of line.
Virginians are unhappier with Biden today than they were with Trump four years ago
For any Democrats wondering how Biden could possibly be tied with Trump, it’s not hard to find the answer: Voters are very unhappy with how things are going.
In the final Roanoke College poll of the 2020 campaign, 63% of Virginians felt the country was on the wrong track. In this poll, 70% think it’s on the wrong track. True, some voters who felt it was on the wrong track under Trump may feel it’s on the right track under Biden, and vice versa, but the overall effect is that voters are unhappier about the state of things now than they were under Trump — so it’s not surprising that they’re taking that out on the incumbent.
Both men took over the presidency with about the same number of voters in a bad mood. In the first Roanoke College poll of the Trump administration, 52% felt the country was on the wrong track — and that feeling rose from there. In the first Roanoke College poll of the Biden administration, 53% felt the country was on the wrong track — and it’s also risen from there.
The difference is that under Trump, the “wrong track” figures were generally in the 50% or 60% range — except for August 2020, when the figure shot up to 79% then dropped back to 63% just before the election.
Under Biden, those “wrong track” figures have generally been north of 70% for the past two years, and seven of the past nine Roanoke College polls.
Those voters are also inclined to blame Biden for their troubles. When Biden took office, Virginians were generally approving. Through September 2021, more voters approved of the way he was doing the job than disapproved, based on previous Roanoke College polls. In October 2021, the mood changed, and Biden has been “under water,” as pollsters like to say, ever since. The problem for Biden is that his disapproval rate has been consistently rising for a year and a half — from 55% disapproval in November 2022 to 61% disapproval in the past two Roanoke College polls.
Now for the figure that may shock Democrats: Biden’s disapproval rate in Virginia — a state that voted for him — is higher than Trump’s disapproval rate ever was. In 15 Roanoke College polls during his presidency, Trump’s disapproval rate ranged from a low of 48% to 58%. The past three Roanoke College polls have put Biden’s disapproval at or higher than Trump’s worst showing.
Biden fails the Merle Haggard Test
Back in 1982, Merle Haggard had a hit with “Are the Good Times Really Over For Good?” Dealing with the theme of national decline, it’s either a bittersweet song of nostalgia or one of the most politically charged songs around. Or maybe both. The Roanoke College Poll essentially asked the pollster version of that song with the question: “When you think about the future of the United States, which do you agree with more: the country’s best years are ahead of us or the country’s best years are behind us?”
During the Trump years, a majority of Virginians consistently said our best years are ahead of us. Those figured peaked at 62% in November 2020, although that poll was taken after the presidential election so it’s possible some respondents felt things were looking up because Trump was on the way out. In any case, the “ahead” answer had consistently been in the 55% to 57% range throughout Trump’s term. Through the first months of the Biden administration, a majority still thought our best days lay ahead. Starting in November 2021, though, those numbers sank under 50% and haven’t been over 50% since. In this poll, 45% say our best days are ahead of us but 50% say they’re behind us. Trump’s trademark “Make America Great Again” seems in tune with how voters are feeling.
Ronald Reagan devastated then-President Jimmy Carter with his classic question: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” In this case, Biden is running afoul of The Hag.
The economy is killing Biden
As James Carville famously said in an election gone by, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Far and away, voters told the Roanoke College poll that the economy is their main concern — 44%. Way back in second and third place are immigration (14%) and abortion (13%).
Democrats want to make this election about democracy; they see Trump as a wanna-be dictator who thinks he’s above the law. They may well be right, but that’s not what voters are thinking about when they go to the grocery store. Democracy is an abstract concept; the price of milk and bread is not.
Economists can have a grand old time arguing about who is responsible for the current inflation, but voters generally don’t care. They almost always blame the incumbent. In the upcoming British elections, they seem set to blame a right-of-center prime minister. In the upcoming American elections, they seem set to blame a left-of-center president.
I’ve seen lots of Democrats on social media saying the economy is in great shape by pointing to the stock market being at record highs. That seems an odd approach for Democrats. It’s true, the stock market touches more than just Wall Street investors; anyone with money in a 401(k) benefits from the current upturn. However, most of us aren’t looking at our 401(k) that much; we are looking at the prices at the grocery store. At last week’s Southwest Virginia Economic Forum, we heard how wage growth in the state’s westernmost counties is outpacing both state and national averages, but that wage growth may not mean much if voters are worried that inflation will eat away those increases. Inflation seems to be slowing but perception always runs behind reality.
Where an election is concerned, voters don’t judge the economy on a bunch of statistics, however valid they may be; they judge it based on how they feel about it. The day before Roanoke College released this political poll, it released an economic one — and that poll showed voter confidence in the economy slipping. That’s never a good thing for any incumbent.
Independents aren’t excited about either candidate
The poll asked how excited people are about voting. Republicans were a little more excited than Democrats — 63% of Republicans said they are very enthusiastic about voting, 57% of Democrats said they are very enthusiastic, a worrisome “enthusiasm gap” if you’re a Democrat. Independents, though, are in a sour mood — only 39% of them said they were very excited.
Those independents don’t particularly like Trump — they gave Biden slightly higher marks than Trump. When pressed, they told the pollsters they’d favor Biden 42% to 35%. However, here’s one reason they aren’t enthusiastic about voting: 37% of independents said the Trump years were “mostly good” while only 20% felt the same way about Biden.
Biden needs to find a way to get those independents more excited about him — but first he’ll have to overcome their feelings that things are worse now than they were under Trump.
Kennedy helps Biden and hurts Trump — but just a little and that could change
The 42%-42% tie is for a two-way race, which this won’t be. Over the past century, Virginia has had only one two-way presidential race: Herbert Hoover vs. Al Smith in 1928. All the others have featured at least one, and often more, third-party candidates on the ballot. The Libertarian Party, which over the weekend nominated Chase Oliver (who describes himself as “armed and gay”), has historically made the Virginia ballot. The question is who else will — particularly Robert Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent.
Kennedy has a Democratic brand name but many of his positions are more in line with what we’d expect from Republicans (he recently denounced taking down Confederate monuments). The Roanoke College poll asked respondents about a two-way race, but also a five-way race with Kennedy, independent Cornel West and Jill Stein of the Green Party. (Oliver hadn’t been nominated in time to make the poll.)
In that contest, the results were Biden 40%, Trump 38%, Kennedy 8%, Stein 3%, West 1%, somebody else 8% and then 3% undecided or refused to answer.
It would appear that Kennedy pulls from both parties but may pull from Trump more, particularly among independents. In a two-way race, independents went for Biden 42% to 35%. In a five-way race, they went for Biden 39% to 29%. This is why Trump has lately directed some fire at Kennedy; he’s a potential threat.
Several things should be noted here:
- Third-party candidates often peak early, then fade as the election nears and voters realize they’re not going to win.
- It’s tempting to look at percentages and say, for instance, that West and Stein are taking votes from Biden, but the reality is they may be bringing out voters who otherwise simply wouldn’t vote.
- Given how unpopular both Biden and Trump are, it’s possible we’ll see a spike in votes for third-party candidates, despite the first point I made. Remember the 2013 governor’s race in Virginia between Terry McAuliffe and Ken Cuccinelli where Libertarian Robert Sarvis polled 6.5% of the vote — mostly a protest vote from people who didn’t like the two main candidates, because that was far more than the 1% or so that Libertarians usually take in statewide races in Virginia.
Is Tim Kaine in danger?
The Democratic senator faces the winner of the June 18 primary, where five little-known Republicans are running. (For more on that primary, see our voter guide). Kaine ought to be heavily favored in November, although the Roanoke College poll suggests we might want to drop the “heavily” part. The last time he was up for reelection, in 2018, his favorable rating was 50% and his unfavorable rating was 33%. This time, it’s 43% and 39%. He’s doing better than Biden, a lot better, but those numbers are still probably too close for comfort for Democrats.
Those who think Kaine can’t lose should read up on the 1972 Senate race where Democratic incumbent Bill Spong was upset by Republican Bill Scott. Scott had the benefit of a Republican landslide in Virginia that year with Richard Nixon. There won’t be a landslide for either party in Virginia this year, but these numbers suggest Republicans may have more opportunity than they first thought.
Now, the good news for Democrats
Yes, there is some, although it’s not in the poll itself.
There’s a famous military saying: Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics. Much the same here: Polls deal in percentages. Campaigns focus on raw numbers — and the raw numbers in Virginia are more favorable for Democrats than this poll suggests.
Every campaign starts from zero, and the goal is to get more votes than the other side — regardless of what the percentages are. Here are some relevant numbers:
In 2016, Trump polled 1,769,443 votes in Virginia, or 44.4% of the total. In 2020, his vote total rose to 1,962,430 votes, or 44.0%. More votes, but virtually the same percentage.
Here’s a thought experiment that both campaigns are surely working through now: Has Trump expanded his support since 2020, or has he lost support? If he has expanded his base, how many more votes could he get in Virginia? If you’re a Democrat, you want to err on the side of caution and assume that Trump’s support has grown some (and there is some evidence in other polls that Trump has made some headway with Black and Latino voters). Let’s round Trump’s vote up to 2 million in Virginia, just to have a nice round number.
Now let’s look on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton in 2016 is now regarded as a weak candidate, but her vote totals in Virginia were higher than any other Democratic candidate for president at that point. She also polled 1,981,473 votes. Take note of two things: That’s more than Trump polled in Virginia in either 2016 or 2020 — but would be lower than the 2 million we just rounded Trump up to if he expands his support in Virginia.
Biden might be able to win in Virginia with a Hillary Clinton-like result, but it’s no sure thing. Fortunately for Democrats, in 2024 Biden polled 2,413,568 votes in Virginia. No Democrat should be under any illusion that all those votes were for Biden. Some people voted for him simply because he wasn’t Trump. Biden will need those same voters this time around, except now those voters can weigh his term against Trump’s — and Biden may not always come out on top with some of them, as the data above shows.
Still, if you’re a Democrat, the good news is this: Biden has more potential votes in Virginia than Trump does. He just needs to figure out how to energize those voters. Can he persuade them that the economy is improving? Or does he need to double down on trying to scare the bejeebers out of people about Trump 2.0? My reading of this poll is that Biden’s opponent isn’t really Trump, it’s apathy and disappointment.
In this week’s West of the Capital:
I write a free weekly political newsletter, West of the Capital, that goes out every Friday afternoon at 3 p.m. You can sign up here:
This week I’ll look at:
* The latest early voting figures from the June 18 primaries.
* An update on the Bob Good-John McGuire primary for the 5th District Republican nomination.
* More stats from the Roanoke College Poll.
