For the first time in history, voters across New Hampshire, and across the nation, are considering what it means to have a former president and major party presidential candidate who is a convicted felon.
“This is just not good for our country,” said Carol DeHaven, an unregistered voter from Hollis, New Hampshire, who voted for Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary. “I also think it's terrible that he could be the next president of the United States.”
After Haley withdrew, DeHaven said he had some reservations but decided to vote for Joe Biden. He said Trump's conviction made him even more certain that he would not support the former president in November's election.
“I just don't really like this guy, this person, these politics, anything about it,” she said.
But if convicting Trump strengthens the resolve of voters like DeHaven, it could be more likely to rally together Trump's most staunch supporters, said Chris Ager, a Trump ally and chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party Committee.
“They will crawl through broken glass to vote for President Trump,” Ager said.
Trump was convicted this week of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to bribe porn actresses in a scheme to influence the 2016 election, but Ager argued the case against the former president was “unfair” and that the justice system did not apply the law equally.
“It looks like they're punishing President Trump harshly,” he said, adding that convicting Trump could also garner support from voters who are undecided about the former president.
Steve Dupree, a former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party who did not support Trump, offered a different view. He said there would be a “small number of people” who would be inclined to support Trump because they were unhappy with the economy, immigration or Biden's policies. But after Trump's conviction, they would rethink their plans. Dupree said that “could help Biden in some way.”
Biden won New Hampshire by more than seven points in 2020, but a recent University of New Hampshire poll shows the race is now much closer, with Biden leading by just two points. The poll also found that if Trump is convicted, it would likely help Biden win over some undecided voters: 23% of voters said they would be more likely to vote if Trump was convicted, while 37% said they would be less likely to vote.
“In this state and other battleground states, that could be enough to make a difference in a close election,” Dupree said.
Making predictions about an election several months away is always a risky business, but this one is even trickier because the country is in politically uncharted territory.
“I've never seen anything like this before, so my first reaction is to be cautious and cautious,” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. “It's going to take the next few months for this to unfold.”
Still, Scala expects the conviction will cause Trump's loyal base to double down on his support while Trump haters will resolidify their support for Biden. He doubts that younger voters, including progressives, who may have drifted away from Biden will return to the president now that he's facing a convicted felon.
But Mr. Scala isn't ready to give up on Mr. Trump. In fact, far from it: He said he has predicted Mr. Trump's political decline many times over the past decade, only to see him eventually bounce back.
“I've been wrong so many times before,” he said.
Indeed, Trump has repeatedly demonstrated a rare ability to survive and thrive amid scandal, and now he faces his biggest scandal yet.
This segment aired on May 31, 2024. Audio for this segment is not available.
