Get your free copy of Editor's Digest
FT editor Roula Khalaf picks her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Mexico will vote on Sunday to elect a new president and thousands of local leaders after one of the deadliest elections in recent years that showed criminal gangs are gaining influence in the country's politics.
Two women are leading the presidential race, with opinion polls showing Claudia Scheinbaum of the ruling leftist party with a clear lead over opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez after a divisive and violent campaign.
Latin America's second-largest economy has a historic opportunity to attract foreign investment amid a trade war between the United States and China, but its next leader must first tackle a huge budget deficit, frequent violence and an aging energy and water infrastructure.
International drug cartels and local gangs have expanded their influence over many aspects of the economy, from agriculture to the oil industry. Violence has reached record levels under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's administration, with more than 175,000 people killed and another 43,000 missing in less than six years.
Some 36 people running for office were killed in the run-up to the polls, and observers remain on edge ahead of election day. The electoral authority, INE, said 175 polling stations would not be set up due to violence and regional disputes.
“This is a huge distortion of people's right to choice,” said Lisa Sanchez, president of the nonprofit Mexican Coalition to Prevent Crime.
“We know that in Mexico, beyond elections, there is a criminal system of governance that is not necessarily working in the interest of the electorate.”
Candidates have been attacked for refusing to support criminal gangs or for backing rivals, but in most cases the crimes remain unsolved. Criminal gangs have kidnapped candidates and on Thursday set fire to a building storing ballots in Chiapas state.
This week, Alfredo Cabrera, a mayoral candidate in the Pacific coast state of Guerrero, was shot and killed at close range at his final rally, despite being escorted by armed National Guard troops.
While security is a top concern for voters, many are choosing based on broader opinions of Lopez Obrador, a charismatic populist who has raised the minimum wage and expanded social security programs. Mexico's economy is booming with foreign investment and it became the United States' largest trading partner last year.
His supporters are hoping Scheinbaum will do the same.
Rita Maria Flores, a 61-year-old seamstress from Veracruz, said she planned to vote for Sheinbaum because “she is an educated woman and she has done a lot for the country.”
Lopez Obrador's approval rating is in the mid-60s, but he also faces strong criticism from critics who worry he is concentrating power in the presidency, undermining a weak public health system and giving the military far too much economic power.
Jessica Velasco, 36, a psychologist who planned to vote for Galvez and an opposition candidate, said she wanted Congress to at least be divided “so that they can't approve what they want, when they want… so that we have to debate and we have a democracy.”
While turnout is expected to be high, it is unclear how much power the ruling party will have in parliament to implement constitutional changes to institutions such as the Supreme Court.
Polls show that local elections, like the one in Mexico City where Sheinbaum held his position until last year, are closely contested, and some middle-class urban voters are more likely to be harshly critical of the ruling party because of its record of governing.
Scheinbaum, a former climate scientist, has run his campaign by sticking to a script of continuity while hinting at change on issues like renewable energy, and in his final campaign speech he largely spoke about the policies and record of his mentor.
“We are seeing more and more candidates who are very close to Lopez Obrador's ideas and his personality,” said Mexican pollster Lorena Becerra.
The winner won't take office until October but will have to make key decisions quickly, including how to reduce the biggest budget deficit since the 1980s, how much bailout to give to debt-ridden state oil company Pemex and which judges to nominate to the Supreme Court.
Galvez has promised a more confrontational approach to fighting organized crime in the country, while Sheinbaum has vowed to continue the president's “root causes” strategy and strengthen investigative capabilities. But a sustained reduction in homicides will be difficult given the increasing focus of national security forces on the military.
“This is going to be a complicated presidency,” Becerra said. “This country is [López Obrador] accept.”
