June 2, 2024 4:42 PM
Why Mexico's elections matter more than ever to the US
Analysis by Sofia Benavides, CNN en Español
A person holds a sign that reads “We are all the same Mexico” in Spanish, during an opposition rally called to encourage people to vote in the upcoming elections, in the main square, Zocalo, in Mexico City, on May 19.
Ginette Riquelme/AP
Mexico's general election, to be held on June 2nd, will be the largest in the country's history, with more than 98 million voters, approximately 70,000 candidates, and over 20,000 public offices up for election.
But it is not just the magnitude of the event that makes it so significant to observers across the border in the United States.
For the first time in history, the country is set to elect its first female president. The two leading candidates are both women: Claudia Scheinbaum of the Morena party, which is backed by the ruling coalition Sigamos Haciendo Historia, and Xochitl Gálvez, who is backed by the opposition coalition.
The vote is significant because it comes in the same year as a U.S. presidential election, which only takes place every 12 years, and at a time of transition in relations between the two countries.
“The days when the United States only wanted security and stability in Mexico are over. Now the United States is also interested in countries with good public policies,” said Rafael Fernández de Castro Medina, director of the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego, pointing to the growing Latino population in the United States and strengthening ties between the two countries.
Here are some of the biggest issues affecting U.S.-Mexico relations that will be affected by Sunday's vote.
economy: Mexico surpassed China and Canada to become America's largest trading partner last year, largely because the pandemic, the legacy of President Trump's trade war with China and geopolitical issues such as the war in Ukraine have encouraged nearshoring, boosting U.S. imports from and investment in Mexico, experts say.
transfer: Migration across the two countries' 1,933-mile border is a common concern, but the issue ranks much lower on the agenda for Mexican politicians than it does in the U.S., where it could be a deciding factor in the November vote, said Karin Zissis, editor-in-chief of the American Association/Council of the Americas website. “Sheinbaum and Galvez's speeches on immigration are not very forceful or very different from each other, and they don't say much about what to do about immigration in the country,” she said. The challenge for U.S. politicians is that they need the buy-in of Mexican politicians to make their own immigration policies successful.
Fentanyl and Drug Trafficking: Security is another pillar of the bilateral relationship, and it has become increasingly important, especially in the context of the thriving cross-border drug trade that plagues both countries. While the United States is grappling with a domestic health crisis caused by the proliferation of fentanyl on its streets, Mexico is facing an uptick in violence linked to drug cartels. There have been dozens of assassination attempts and political violence in Mexico ahead of elections.
