MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico's newly elected president, the first woman to hold the position, faces many challenges, including continued cartel violence, a deeply divided country and an underfunded social welfare system. The long shadow of her mentorOutgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
But for some analysts, it mainly comes down to three things: money, dialogue and the outcome of the US presidential election.
Claudia Scheinbaum has four months to define the administration's agenda when she begins her six-year term as president on Oct. 1. In the meantime, Lopez Obrador is expected to continue holding daily morning press conferences to consolidate his accomplishments.
Who is Claudia Scheinbaum, Mexico's future first female president?
Coexistence may never be easy. He has divided society, while she says she wants to unite it. He is a mass leader, while she is A scholar and scientist.
Lopez Obrador has said he has no plans to interfere in his successor's administration. “I have no desire to be a 'moral leader,' a 'high authority,' or a 'high official,'” he said Monday.
He has insisted that he will “talk to the trees and live with the birds” after his presidency ends, but it was he who announced on Monday that current Finance Secretary Rogelio Ramirez de la O will stay in his post until the next administration. To avoid a market crash.
Achieving a balance between continuity and change is not an easy task.
A cable car glides over a polling station (right) during general elections in Mexico City, Sunday, June 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Ginnette Riquelme)
The biggest economic challenge will be whether Sheinbaum can find the money to continue his predecessor's popular social welfare programs, given the government is running a large deficit of about 6 percent and the Treasury Department has promised to make cuts.
“Fiscal reform is needed,” said Isidro Morales, an economics and international relations expert. Without it, “Claudia will have her hands tied” as he cited Mexico's declining oil revenues as one of the problems.
Mexico's state-run oil company, Pemex, is Mr Lopez Obrador's most fervent symbol of nationalism, but the company continues to lose money and oil is far from its main source of revenue. But it's a red line for Mr Sheinbaum, who, despite being a climate scientist who wants a clean-energy transition, finished his campaigning last week in front of a giant banner of support from oil industry workers.
A construction worker drives along the border wall separating Tijuana, Mexico, from the United States, in San Diego, Tuesday, June 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Mexico's presidential transition coincides with the middle of the U.S. presidential election campaign.
“The most important election in Mexico will be held on November 5th,” said Carlos A. Pérez Ricart, a professor at Mexico's public research center CIDE, referring to the U.S. presidential election.
Pérez Ricard said the reelection of President Joe Biden or the return of former President Donald Trump to power would be “a real variable that changes the scenario.” The outcome could affect many domestic decisions about security, trade and immigration policy, as well as the role of the Mexican military, he said.
Scheinbaum studied in the United States, speaks English and understands the country's politics, so one would think he would have a better understanding with Washington, but no one can control the Trump factor.
And when it comes to migration and security, Mexico's new president is left with only existing policies, which have only intermittently slowed migration to the U.S. border but have failed to significantly reduce Mexico's persistent violence.
A group of migrants seeking asylum search for transportation after being processed and released, Tuesday, June 4, 2024, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
To address Mexico's growing violence, analysts say the country needs to strengthen its civilian police and prosecutors. Instead, Lopez Obrador has militarized the country and turned to the military. Unprecedented power A range of civilian sectors, from internal security to construction, carry risks to human rights and accountability.
It remains unclear what Scheinbaum wants from the military, what changes she could make and how the military might pressure her.
Politically, her Morena party's majority in parliament could be a double-edged sword.
This will be seen as a danger to the roughly 40 percent of voters who did not support her, as if the primary results stand, she could win enough seats to amend the constitution. Lopez Obrador has proposed a number of controversial changes to the constitution, including abolishing the executive branch and ending the popular election of judges.
Electoral commissioners count ballots after polling stations close during the general elections in Mexico City, Sunday, June 2, 2024. (AP/Ginette Riquelme)
It's important that Mexico has a strong government that unquestioningly upholds the separation of powers, Pérez Riccardo said.
But political scientist Luis Miguel Pérez Juarez argued that Sunday's landslide victory gives Sheinbaum “tremendous power,” including the ability to act independently from the party founded by Lopez Obrador.
“She doesn't have to rely on anybody,” he said.
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