More than two-thirds of U.S. voters say immigration and border security will affect their vote, and a quarter say it will be a deciding factor. Voters are also unhappy with President Joe Biden's handling of both issues, according to a recent poll by researchers at the University of South Florida.
So it was not surprising that the president fundamentally reversed course on Tuesday, issuing an executive order banning migrants from seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, where crossings have surged.
Heading into the November election, views of the president's immigration policies have become increasingly negative, with majorities of Americans expressing dissatisfaction and distrust with his handling of border security and immigration, which has contributed to a decline in his overall approval rating.
Until recently, the Biden administration had taken steps to roll back strict Trump-era immigration laws aimed at restricting both legal and illegal immigration to the United States, but Tuesday's dramatic action changed that.
“We must face a simple truth,” the president said in announcing the measures. “To protect America as a welcoming nation for immigrants, we must first secure our border — and secure it now.”
His plan mirrors some of the stricter policies of former President Donald Trump, and our new survey data suggests many Americans may want to see some of those stricter policies reinstated.
The United States has the largest number of foreign-born residents in the world. Immigrants make up about 14% of the U.S. population, according to the most recent census data, and Americans have historically celebrated immigrants and the diverse contributions they make to society. But that hasn't been the case recently.
Lowest rating
USF researchers recently conducted a national survey of 1,500 registered voters to explore key election-year issues, including immigration. Here's a look at some takeaways from the survey, conducted before President Biden's executive order was issued.
The poll found that while a majority of registered voters are dissatisfied with Biden's handling of several of the top issues facing the nation, his approval rating is lowest when it comes to immigration and border security. Specifically, 62% of respondents are dissatisfied with his handling of the border crisis, and only 11% say they “strongly approve.”
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Overall, 68% of voters said immigration would influence their vote, and a quarter said it would be a deciding factor. Moreover, when voters were asked which issues would most directly affect their November vote, immigration ranked behind inflation and the economy.
When asked about specific initiatives related to immigration and border security, respondents said they strongly favor stricter border controls but were divided on the most controversial immigration policies. More than three-quarters of respondents (77%) support increased Border Patrol presence on the southern border, and 60% support stronger physical barriers. However, most respondents oppose more controversial initiatives such as “family separation” policies (66%). A majority also oppose the existence of “sanctuary cities” (48%).
Where is the trust?
A majority of respondents (47%) believe that states should be allowed to implement their own immigration policies, even if those policies conflict with federal immigration law. In contrast, 32% oppose the idea and 21% are unsure, highlighting the ongoing debate over the appropriate balance of power between state and federal governments.
The survey also found relatively high levels of trust in state governments to deal with immigration and border security. For example, 60% of registered voters say they have “somewhat” confidence in their state's ability to manage these issues effectively. This contrasts sharply with just 39% expressing similar confidence in Congress. This difference highlights a large trust gap in which many Americans believe their state governments are more competent than Congress to deal with immigration issues.
Partisan lines further highlight the divisions on the issue: Support for states to enforce their own immigration policies is significantly higher among Republicans, with 64% in favor, compared to 40% of Democrats.
Partisan divisions
While overall support for stricter border policies is strong, our findings highlight deep partisan divides on border security policy, with Republicans expressing significantly stronger support for tougher measures than Democrats and independents. A full 70% of Republicans “strongly support” building more physical barriers on the southern border, such as building more walls or fencing, compared to 23% of Democrats and 31% of independents who say the same, further highlighting polarization of opinion on how best to secure the border.
The division is also evident in attitudes toward deploying the National Guard to the southern border. A majority of Republicans (80%) are at least “somewhat supportive” of the measure, including 56% who “strongly support” it. Only 43% of Democrats and 52% of independents support the deployment, indicating a large partisan divide in support for using military resources to address border security issues. Moreover, 66% of Republicans “strongly support” sending more Border Patrol agents, compared with only 33% of Democrats and 39% of independents who share the same view.
This shows a clear trend: Republicans consistently support stricter and more specific border security measures than Democrats and Independents. However, it is notable that support from Democrats and Independents remains significantly higher, indicating bipartisan concerns about border security. This bipartisan divide is an important factor in the ongoing national debate over how to manage and secure the U.S.-Mexico border.
In what will be a competitive presidential election cycle, the candidates who can most effectively appeal to voters' concerns on these issues over the next five months will have a distinct advantage when Americans head to the polls in November.
Megan Cohn and Savannah Hubbard are graduate assistants and researchers in the University of South Florida School of Public Policy. The survey was conducted May 6-9 at the University of South Florida with support from the Florida Cybersecurity Center. Respondents included a nationally representative sample of 1,500 registered voters, and results are reported with a margin of error of +/- 2.11% (95% confidence level).
