- Virginia is a foundational part of President Joe Biden's road map to winning a second term.
- But recent polls in the state have shown Biden and Trump tied or nearly tied in support.
- Republicans now believe Trump has a chance of winning the state.
In 2020, it was a given that Joe Biden would win Virginia in that year's presidential election.
Four years earlier, Donald Trump had won the White House but lost the state to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Trump never established a strong political base in Virginia, and his unpopularity there led to heavy Republican losses in the 2017 and 2019 state legislative elections, especially in swing suburban districts.
Biden has strong support among black voters, independents and voters aged 18 to 29, and as a former vice president he defeated Trump in Virginia by a 10-point margin in 2020.
But as the 2024 campaign enters the crucial summer period, recent polls have shown Biden and Trump deadlocked in Virginia, a development with big implications for both candidates.
Will Biden have to spend his time campaigning in states where he's already won a lot, and will Trump find himself attracting the attention of voters he's rejected twice before for a third time?
Here's the state of Virginia, where Biden has a big lead heading into November:
Why is Biden lagging in Virginia?
A recent Fox News poll of Virginia voters showed Biden and Trump tied at 48 percent, with Biden leading by one point in races involving third-party candidates, 42 percent to 41 percent. A Roanoke College poll conducted last month showed Biden and Trump tied at 42 percent among likely voters, with 8 percent of respondents saying they supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The numbers represent a softening of Biden's support, as he won 54% of the vote in the state in 2020 compared to Trump's 44%.
The Fox News poll puts Biden's favorability rating at 42% and job approval at 43%, in line with many of the national polling numbers. Though Virginia has generally leaned Democratic in recent years, Biden's numbers are a reminder that Virginia is not a reliably Democratic state, but rather a Democratic-leaning state (the election of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2021 reflects that).
Virginia voters give Biden high marks on issues such as climate change, abortion rights and election integrity, but give Trump an edge on issues such as the economy, the Israel-Hamas war and immigration.
The latter three issues are consistently cited as voters' top concerns, which helped Trump win polls neck-and-neck with Biden in Virginia.
The Fox News poll also showed that Trump received an unusually high 25% support among black voters, a recent record for a Republican presidential candidate in the state, and there was no difference in support between 18-29 year olds and those 65 and older, with the candidate receiving the same approval rating in both age groups at 48%.
What could increase Biden's chances of winning this state?
In recent years, Democrats have consolidated their support in Virginia's most populous regions, from Northern Virginia through the Richmond metropolitan area to Hampton Roads, which are home to numerous suburban communities where moderate and independent candidates from both parties typically win and lose statewide elections.
Judging by recent voting trends, many of these voters are leaning toward Biden.
Despite his drop in support in the state, Biden still led Trump among independents (45% to 43%) in the Fox News poll, and Biden still held large majorities among college-educated voters (56%) and suburban women (58%) — demographics crucial to the president and lower-ranking Democratic candidates.
And Trump remains unpopular in Northern Virginia, an electoral goldmine for Democrats, where a high turnout would require him to win large numbers of votes in rural Virginia and the southern suburbs to win.
In a recent Fox News interview, Youngkin said recent polling numbers mean Virginia “will be a swing state” in the November election.
But polls conducted as Labor Day approaches will likely paint a clearer picture of Virginia's competitive nature, as many voters remain aloof from the election and some currently leaning toward third-party candidates may return to Biden's camp.
