A majority of Californians say they're likely to vote in November's election, but those who are unsure have one thing in common: they don't like the presidential candidates.
The findings are from a poll released Friday by the University of California, Berkeley's Institute for Public Administration that asked 5,095 voters across California about their likelihood of voting in the Nov. 5 general election, which will be a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump.
About 78% of California voters say they are very likely to vote, according to a poll conducted for the nonprofit Evelyn and Walter Haas Jr. Foundation, and the poll found that voting intentions vary widely by age, race and political party, as do the reasons people say they are less likely to vote.
Californians who say they are very likely to vote said their main reason is to participate in the presidential election. But among those who say they are unlikely to vote, 40% said they don't like the presidential candidate. That percentage rose to 55% among voters who have voted regularly in the past but aren't sure whether they will vote this year.
Trump, a Republican, is now running as the first former president convicted of a crime after a jury found him guilty last month of falsifying records to hide payments to a porn star he claimed to have had an affair with. Biden, a Democrat, has faced criticism from within his party for his support of Israel in its war with Hamas and for his moves to restrict asylum at the Mexican border. Both also face questions about their ages — Trump is 77 and Biden is 81.
“The presidential election seems to be hitting both sides,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll. “It's motivating people who are already likely to vote in their favor, but it seems to be a deterrent for others.”
According to the poll, Democrats and liberals were more likely than Republicans and conservatives to say dislike of the presidential candidate was one reason they would not vote.
More than one in three voters in the state said they were unlikely to vote because “special interests and big money control the situation,” and nearly three in 10 said they didn't have enough information about the issues or candidates.
“When it comes to politics in our country, it's clear that conviction is low and skepticism is high,” Jonathan Mehta Stein, executive director of California Common Cause, said in a statement.
California's Nov. 5 ballot will be a long one, with a presidential election, a growing number of ballot measures across the state, and several closely contested congressional races that could determine which party controls Congress. Races in purple areas are expected to be decided by very narrow margins.
Overall, the poll found that the groups most likely to be motivated to vote were those over 65, white voters, Republicans, homeowners and those with graduate school degrees.
Groups least likely to say they are likely to vote include young people, Black or Asian Americans, and voters with less than a high school education or who are naturalized citizens.
“This is pretty much consistent with what we've seen in past elections, where older voters, white voters, and more educated voters are most likely to turn out,” DiCamillo said.
The survey found that the likelihood of voting varies greatly by race: 90% of white respondents said they were very likely to vote, compared with 66% of black voters, 70% of Latino voters and 62% of Asian American voters.
DiCamillo said the foundation has provided special funding to focus on Asian Americans, California's fastest growing demographic group.
The poll used voter roll information to locate voters who had requested voting materials in Chinese, Korean or Vietnamese and asked the poll questions in those languages (the poll always asks questions in both English and Spanish).
DiCamillo said the results give “a better understanding of the voting demographic than ever before” and suggest wide disparities in voting trends even among Asian Americans.
Nearly two in three Vietnamese Americans said they were very likely to vote. That figure rose to 71% among other Asian American and Pacific Islander American groups, including Filipino Americans and Japanese Americans.
By comparison, just under half of Korean Americans and 54% of Chinese Americans said they were likely to vote.
The poll also asked California voters how they could increase interest in the general election.
White and Asian American voters were most likely to say they would be more likely to vote if they felt a ballot measure or candidate promoted their interests.
Latino voters were most likely to say they would be more likely to vote “if election results were more trustworthy,” and black voters were most likely to say they would be more likely to vote “if they had access to reliable, unbiased news sources about elections.”
Christian Arana, vice president of the Latino Community Foundation, said in a statement that investing in voter education is crucial to help voters “understand the importance of their vote and the impact they can have.”
Voters under 30 were four times more likely than voters over 65 to say that “getting more information about when and how to vote” could improve their turnout.
They were also much more likely to say their voting behavior would change if voting was more convenient or if they had help from “a trusted person or group that can help me understand the issues and candidates better.”
DiCamillo cautioned that just because 78% of respondents rated themselves as very likely to vote doesn't mean turnout is predicted to be 78%. He said most voters have a positive intention to vote, but “we're probably overestimating it.”
More than 80% of California voters cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election, the highest percentage since 1976.
The poll was conducted in five languages from May 29 to June 4. The margin of error among all registered voters is estimated to be plus or minus 2 percentage points and could be higher for subgroups.
