Voter turnout in Iran's presidential elections matters
The Iranian presidential election scheduled for June 28 is attracting a great deal of attention both at home and abroad. One of the most important things to watch in this election is the voter turnout.
The Iranian government is keen to keep voter turnout high for several reasons. First, a high voter turnout signifies strong support for the government and demonstrates that it has the backing of the public. This is crucial for a government seeking to project an image of legitimacy and stability both domestically and on the international stage. In other words, the perception of widespread support could strengthen the government's legitimacy.
The second issue has to do with current regional tensions: With tensions rising between Israel and the US, from the Iranian leadership's perspective, a high voter turnout would be a good sign that the Iranian people are united and supportive of the government's stance against outside pressure.
Third, for the Iranian government, presenting a united front through high voter turnout could be crucial in demonstrating domestic stability, especially as it faces multiple domestic challenges.
Presenting a united front through high voter turnout could be crucial in signaling stability in the country.
However, as reported by the Iranian government itself, Iran's recent parliamentary elections recorded historically low voter turnout. This trend of low voter turnout raises concerns that the upcoming presidential elections may also see a similarly low turnout. Several factors are contributing to the expected low voter turnout.
One of the main reasons for the low voter turnout is likely to be widespread dissatisfaction with the current economic situation. Iran is plagued by high inflation and severe unemployment, which have created considerable public discontent. Iran's official annual inflation rate hit 47.5% in July last year, the highest level in more than 30 years.
The economic hardships facing ordinary Iranians, including a significant decline in purchasing power due to the devaluation of the national currency, have forced many to live below the poverty line. These economic hardships are likely to deter many from participating in the elections, as they may feel that their vote will not bring about needed economic reforms and improvements.
In addition to economic hardship, there is widespread socio-political discontent among the Iranian people. As witnessed by the international community, the implementation of strict religious laws, especially those affecting women, has previously triggered widespread protests and demonstrations. The socio-political situation in Iran is heavily influenced by a conservative and hardline ideology that many citizens oppose and consider to be out of touch with modern social values. This discontent is another major factor leading to the expected low voter turnout.
Low voter turnout could further erode government legitimacy and exacerbate socio-economic challenges.
Another significant problem is the lack of enthusiasm for the presidential candidate slate. The Guardian Council, responsible for vetting candidates, has approved the candidacy of only six candidates for president: Massoud Pezeshkian, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Mohamed Baqer Qalibaf, Saeed Jalili, and Alireza Zakhani. With limited options and a preponderance of hard-line candidates, many voters likely became disillusioned and lost interest in participating in the election.
One of the key aspects of the final selection process for the Guardian Council is the predominance of hard-liners among the approved candidates, which has significant implications for the political landscape in Iran, which is currently heavily biased towards hard-liners. These hard-liners are known for their firm adherence to the revolutionary principles of the Islamic Republic and their insistence on a stricter interpretation and implementation of these ideals.
Within the country, hardliners have pushed for the implementation of strict religious laws, sparking widespread discontent, especially among young people and women who feel increasingly alienated by these policies. The conservative approach to governance adopted by these candidates is also often seen as an obstacle to social progress and modernization.
Regionally, the hard-line views are broadly aligned with the objectives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership, signaling a continuation of Iran's current foreign policy stance, characterized by a confrontational stance toward Israel and a defensive stance against perceived threats from the United States and its allies.
The outcome of Iran's upcoming presidential elections will have far-reaching implications for the country's future, both domestically and internationally. An expected low voter turnout could further undermine the government's legitimacy and exacerbate existing socio-economic challenges. Moreover, the majority of hard-line candidates suggests little change is likely in Iran's domestic and foreign policies.
Internationally, continued hardline policies could further isolate Iran and increase tensions with regional and global powers, further straining the Iranian economy and limiting the country's ability to engage in meaningful diplomatic negotiations.
In short, as the Iranian presidential election approaches, one of the key issues to watch is voter turnout. The government's desire for a high voter turnout is likely to clash with the reality of widespread public dissatisfaction with the country's economic situation, socio-political issues, and limited choice of candidates. The dominance of hardline ideologies among the candidates further complicates the situation. The outcome of the election will be a key indicator of Iran's future direction both domestically and globally.
Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the authors in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Arab News.