Joe Biden has retreated to Camp David to prepare for the first 2024 presidential debate, a key opportunity for him to shift the momentum of his reelection campaign.
The president goes into Wednesday's debate beset by persistently low approval ratings and a series of video clips that have highlighted his age and sparked attacks from Republicans about his fitness to serve as president.
With just over four months to go until the November vote, Biden's main mission in his televised showdown with Donald Trump in Atlanta will be to demonstrate that at 80 years old, he is still fit for the presidency, while highlighting his differences with the former president's personality and policies.
Alan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, said Biden's first task will be “to demonstrate that he is undiminished and capable of carrying out the duties of the presidency for a second term.”
Lichtman added that his other objectives should be to “set out a vision for a second term,” “correct misconceptions about the American economy,” and “highlight the dangers that Donald Trump poses to the rule of law and American democracy.”
Biden has chipped away at Trump's previous polling lead in recent weeks and got a boost this week when he took a slight lead in the fivethirtyeight.com national polling average for the first time this year. Biden currently leads nationally by 0.1 percentage point.
A Fox News poll released Wednesday also showed Biden's lead has opened up by seven points since March. Three months ago, Trump had a five-point lead, but Biden now has a two-point lead.
But the president is struggling to garner broad support that would put him in a more comfortable position ahead of the Republican National Convention in July and the Democratic National Convention in August.
The race is close in the key battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump has a slight lead in Pennsylvania. Biden is even further behind in Sun Belt battleground states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, according to the Fivethirtyeight.com polling average. Holding onto most of these states will be crucial to keeping the White House.
“[Biden] “A debate would need to shake things up,” said veteran US political analyst Charlie Cook. “Debates don't normally do that, but they certainly could. They're not often recognised as a potential turning point in a presidential election, but debates certainly could.”
During the 2020 election campaign, Biden performed relatively well in debates with Trump, repeatedly hitting him with simple phrases like “hey, geez.” But while he maintained sharp rhetoric, there were also moments when he faltered for words, such as during the State of the Union address in March. While Trump's rhetoric can sometimes be incoherent and extreme, it is Biden's gaffes that have attracted attention.
In a sign of the importance the Biden team is placing on the debate, the president traveled to his Camp David resort on Thursday to prepare for his showdown with Trump. Former White House chief of staff and longtime aide Ron Klain is coaching Biden in the run up to the debate.
A campaign official said he expects an aggressive approach: “The president has become increasingly aggressive in his comments about Trump recently, and he plans to bring that theme to the debate, while also portraying himself as a wise and stable leader in contrast to the chaos and division that Trump portrays.”
The primary attack against Trump will focus on his “stripping away reproductive rights, inciting political violence, undermining democratic institutions and subservienting billionaire donors to fund tax cuts for the super-rich and corporations at the expense of seniors and the middle class,” the official said.
The Trump campaign has raised concerns about Biden's age and whether he will be able to survive debate night. “President Trump demonstrates elite stamina by doing numerous tough interviews every week and delivering lengthy rally speeches while standing,” Trump senior adviser Jason Miller told the Financial Times. He added that he didn't need to be “programmed by staff” or injected with drugs like Biden.
Cook said the “three years and seven months” age difference between Biden, 81, and Trump, who just turned 78, was “not an issue,” but that it “makes the age gap appear larger than it actually is,” exacerbating the Democratic president's weaknesses on other issues, such as high inflation.
“For swing voters, it comes down to whether they're more concerned about Trump's character and behavior or Biden's management of the economy,” Cook said.
The Biden campaign launched a new $50 million TV ad campaign in battleground states ahead of the debate, attacking Trump as an “errant” felon following his conviction in New York for falsifying business documents to conceal hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels.
This is an attempt to remind Americans of fundamental flaws regarding President Trump's fitness to hold office, assertions the Biden team will likely make repeatedly during the campaign.
But strategists say Biden should not underestimate the debate as an opportunity to outdo his rivals.
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“Biden needs to turn the momentum in his favor in the debate,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist at Penta Group, a Washington consulting firm, who advised Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign.
“A winning campaign always has strong momentum, and at this point even Biden's staunchest supporters will admit he is on the defensive and playing catch-up,” he added.