A hard-line candidate in Iran's presidential election is vying to become the unified candidate of his faction against a surprise reformist candidate, but is facing pressure from some in his own camp to pull out.
A week before voting begins, government-backed conservatives are campaigning hard across the country, including in the holy city of Mashhad, a conservative stronghold and the hometown of two of the most prominent hard-line candidates.
The increased likelihood of reformist Iranians going to the polls has intensified infighting within a hardline group of social conservatives opposed to any reconciliation with the United States over how to consolidate their share of the vote ahead of the first round of elections on June 28.
Mohsen Rezai, the hardline secretary of the Expediency Council, a national policy-making body, backed the Revolutionary Front this week and said a consensus candidate would ultimately be nominated “in respect of the support of the people.”
To select a consensus candidate, some of the five hardliners would need to drop out — a pattern that would mirror past presidential elections in Iran — but local analysts in Mashhad, home to the Shiite holy city of Imam, say that will be difficult to achieve.
Ali Arabi, editor-in-chief of Mashhad's leading conservative newspaper Khorasan, told the Financial Times that it was unlikely that either of the most prominent hardliners, Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf or former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, would withdraw from the race and support the other.
Ghalibaf called for a compromise to narrow it down to one candidate.
The power struggle comes at a critical time: Analysts had assumed that conservatives would almost certainly form the next government after President Ebrahim Raisi, himself a hardline strategist, died in a helicopter crash last month.
But the authorities' surprise approval of reformist lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian's candidacy has rekindled hopes within his camp of a political comeback.
The past three national elections, including the presidential election in 2021, have seen low voter turnout, helping hardliners maintain their grip on power. While voter turnout among the regime's core ideological supporters tends to remain stable in Iran, increases in turnout are more likely to reflect support from reform advocates who back reformist candidates.
Some polls show Mr Ghalibaf as the front-runner, while others show Mr Jalili in the lead.
Saeed Sherbaf, Jalili's campaign manager in Mashhad, said Jalili had no plans to withdraw from the campaign. “It would be a mistake to think that if another candidate withdraws, all his supporters will vote for the remaining candidate,” Sherbaf told the Financial Times.
Hamid Reza Taragi, a conservative politician and former member of parliament in Mashhad, argued that if any of the candidates withdraw from the election, “their votes will likely go to Pezeshkian” – the opposite of the outcome the hardliners want.
Pezeshkian, a cardiac surgeon and five-term member of parliament, is committed to the Islamic Republic's core principles but advocates reforms to make the system more efficient. He seeks better ties with the West and has said he would be more flexible on mandatory hair coverings for women.
“Although Pezeshkian is not calling for structural reforms, his election will create new possibilities for reform,” Ali Yousefi, a sociology professor at Mashhad's Ferdowsi University who is working on Pezeshkian's campaign, told the Financial Times. “There is a lot of room for maneuver and political flexibility in the existing system.”
Last weekend, hundreds of senior university professors and academics gathered at Pezeshkian's campaign event in Mashhad to show their support.
“I didn't vote last time, but it only strengthened the dominance of the hard-liners,” Bahman, a medical student, said at the rally. “This time, I'm going to vote in the hope that we will have more freedoms in society.”
“If turnout is low, Jalili's chances of winning increase. If turnout is between 40 and 50 percent, Ghalibaf's chances of winning increase. And if turnout is above 55 percent, Pezeshkian's chances of winning increase,” Javad Aryanmanesh, a former conservative lawmaker from Mashhad, told the Financial Times.
Analysts and politicians expect the vote will probably go into a second round, with Ghalibaf likely to emerge as the front-runner, facing off against either Djalili or Pezeshkian.
Jalili represents the most hardline wing of Iran's political circles.
“His non-inclusive political approach will increase political polarization in the country and limit Iran's relations with the world,” said sociologist Yousefi.
But that's exactly what's appealing to Jalili's supporters. Fatemeh Ahmadi, a 23-year-old student clad in a chador, a head-to-toe black gown favored by conservative women, said she was voting for Jalili because of “his tough and uncompromising stance against the West.”
“Other countries have been negotiating worthless agreements and sabotaging the country for years,” she said, referring to former President Hassan Rouhani's 2015 nuclear deal that collapsed three years later.
Ghalibaf has become a controversial figure among hardline politicians because of his commitment to pragmatism and modernisation, as well as corruption allegations against some of his closest allies.
If Jalili withdraws from the election, the hardliners risk losing the votes of Ghalibaf's supporters, who do not trust his suitability to be president.
But Majid, a salesman from Mashhad, said: “As a conservative, I will vote for Ghalibaf because he has a longer track record in management and is more moderate than Jalili.”
The vote comes at a time when economic hardship and social and political constraints have left the public disillusioned.
“I won't vote for anyone. What difference does it make whether it's reformists or conservatives? Our lives are in a downward spiral and no one is trying to improve our situation,” said Mohsen, the shop owner.
Reformists and hardliners alike are waiting to see whether voters like Mohsen will change their minds.
“It's too early to say which candidates should or even whether they will withdraw,” said Taragi, the former lawmaker, but he added that the downside of a final deal is that it would create polarization in a divided society, pitting reformers against hardliners.