- Russian authorities have begun discussions about future sixth-generation fighter jets.
- But Russia is struggling to operate its Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets, which are being withdrawn from Ukraine.
- “This is an illusion,” a Russian defense industry expert told BI.
As the Russian Air Force strives to bring about change in Ukraine, the air force and the country's aviation industry are discussing next-generation fighter jets to be deployed by 2050.
Not coincidentally, this discussion comes at a time when the U.S. Air Force has signaled it may abandon plans for a sixth-generation fighter jet, a manned air superiority fighter that would operate in tandem with drones. But experts believe the idea of a next-generation Russian fighter jet is pure fantasy at a time when Russia is struggling to field a fifth-generation stealth fighter.
“This is an illusion,” Pavel Luzhin, an expert on the Russian defense industry, told Business Insider. “Government officials may believe that it's possible, but it's not possible. It's total emptiness. Of course, Russian design bureaus are copying research and development work in this field and getting money from that copying, but there's nothing serious about it.”
Still, the issue is being debated in Russian media, which the regime-controlled media often seeks to stoke nationalism by boasting about the superiority of Russian weapons. “Right now we are considering the concept of a sixth-generation aircraft, conducting research and exchanging ideas with military experts,” Evgeny Fedosov, scientific director of the National Institute of Aviation Systems, said in a column for state news agency TASS. “Such an aircraft should appear by 2050, but we need to understand what future armed conflicts will look like.”
Discussing modern aircraft seems almost unrealistic for Russia, as the Russian Air Force has enough problems using its current fighter jets in Ukraine. Despite being outnumbered and outsmarted by Ukraine's dwindling Soviet-era jet fleet, the Russian Air Force played a minor role in the Ukrainian war. The Russian Air Force has relied primarily on fourth-generation aircraft such as the Su-30, Su-35 and Su-27, which are improved versions of designs from the 1980s. Russia's fifth-generation Su-57 fighter has been conspicuously absent from Ukraine. Only around a dozen Su-57s have been built, and only recently has news of one or two being damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack on a Ukrainian airbase.
But Russia is one of the world's leading aviation powers, with a large research and manufacturing base left over from the Soviet era, and with the U.S. pursuing (albeit tentative) next-generation air superiority plans and China developing next-generation jets, it would be odd if Russia wasn't also considering a new fighter jet.
Like other nations, Russia must grapple with fundamental design questions: Does it make sense to build a manned fighter jet, with the bulk, complexity and survivability required for a human in the cockpit? Or will it opt for an AI-controlled aircraft, or a team of manned jets and drones working together? What stealth capabilities will it have, and will it be armed with conventional cannons, missiles or laser weapons?
In November 2023, a senior Russian aviation official said it had not been decided whether the sixth-generation fighter jets would be manned or unmanned. “Two years ago, a roundtable was organized in the ground forces on the creation of a sixth-generation aviation complex,” Sergey Korotkov, chief designer at the state-run United Aircraft Corporation, told TASS. “Both the military and research institutes involved in aircraft construction were invited to the roundtable, and experts from the Moscow Institute and the United Aircraft Corporation were also present. As a result, no agreement was actually reached.”
Korotkov seems certain that the next-generation jet will be teamed up with drones, saying that “further directions of long-term development of aviation technology are improved flight performance, adaptability with other combat control and engagement systems, high maneuverability, versatility, optimal handling, and multi-mode use of power plants.”
Interestingly, Fedosov, the scientific director of the National Institute of Aviation Systems, suggested that modern jet planes have become too complicated and expensive. “It would be a nefarious act to go further according to the logic of complexity,” he wrote. “And the bigger and heavier the plane, the higher the price.”
These are tough challenges for any country, but Russia must also contend with one that few others face: developing cutting-edge jets while fighting a raging, resource-sapping war in Ukraine and with international sanctions restricting imports of key electronic components needed for its future fighter jets.
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy and other publications. He holds a Master's in Political Science from Rutgers University. twitter and LinkedIn.
