The first debate of the 2024 presidential election will be a disastrous opportunity for both candidates.
Thursday's showdown between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden could be a shocker. There's a good chance that either Trump or Biden will be upset once or twice. It's one thing to be upset, but in this case, the ground beneath their feet may shake.
This political nerd knows this event, broadcast on CNN, will be historic. History has been on the side of past presidential debates: in 1960, Richard Nixon was sweating. In 1976, Gerald Ford argued that Communist-led Poland wasn't under Soviet control. And in 2016, Trump towered over Hillary Clinton onstage. These moments are the stuff of American political theater.
Given the checkered history of recent debates, CNN executives have tried hard to keep this one civil and substantive: The network plans to hire a tough moderator, not have a studio audience and will turn off microphones if contestants exceed their time limits.
Still, there remains a good chance that one or both of the candidates could collapse.
The stakes are high: As of Friday, the latest average of national presidential polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight showed Biden and Trump neck and neck.
Trump vs. Biden is a rancor-filled rematch. Trump has never acknowledged that he lost the popular and electoral vote to Biden. He also refuses to acknowledge that he was rightfully convicted of 34 felonies in a court of law. Why? When that question is asked of him, how can Trump wrap that reality up in a compelling answer?
Some predict Trump will run away. “If I were a gambler — and I am a gambler — I'd bet that Trump doesn't show up,” Jim Carville declared on MSNBC last week.
“I wouldn't be shocked, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised,” the former presidential adviser and Democratic strategist added. “If you gave me that same amount of money, I would say he's not going to show up. He'd wake up that morning and say, 'I'm not doing it anymore.'”
If so, it would be reminiscent of Trump's recent trial, in which he claimed he wanted to testify in his own defense against charges that he falsified business records to cover up a sex scandal that threatened to derail his 2016 presidential campaign. But Trump had the opportunity to take the stand and refused, reminiscent of Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry's subsequent vote against funding $87 billion for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2004.
Trump will also have to address his lack of policymaking skills. That has never been an issue for his most ardent supporters, but it could become a huge problem when most voters want substance. Details are not Trump's forte, but he will need to navigate them on the debate stage.
The fact is, even strong men can come across as arrogant, and while Trump likes a bullish attitude that works well in speeches, quick thinking is his primary advantage in this case.
Editorial: Next month's Biden-Trump debate will be much more important than a typical presidential election showdown
This debate is crucial for Biden. If Trump unsettles him, he may flinch. He will need to watch out for a Mitch McConnell-like stutter, slip-up or freeze-up. If Biden doesn't come out strong, he may not make it through the DNC.
At 81, Joe Biden no longer shocks, something Trump has been keen to point out on multiple occasions.
Biden won't win any awards for his fancy footwork at the podium, but he needs to be as steady as Joe: spirited, aggressive and able to fend off Trump's fierce attacks.
Earlier this year, Democrats were delirious with anxiety ahead of the February State of the Union address. Biden delivered a powerful, confident and forceful speech that his allies now hold up as a model for debate performance. If the president could repeat that performance, he would likely finish the debate on his feet. But there will be no teleprompter, no script and no partisan applause from the audience.
Trump will do everything he can to upset his opponent. He will be Smokin' Joe Frazier going after Muhammad Ali.
Can you imagine Biden fluttering like a butterfly and stinging like a bee?
Conversely, the whole affair may fail, which would be good for both parties: no gain, no pain.
Laura Washington is a political commentator and longtime journalist in Chicago. Her column appears every Monday in the Tribune. Email her at LauraLauraWashington@gmail.com.
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