What to expect ahead of the Trump-Biden presidential debate: Live updates

There will be no spectators at tonight's debate, and apparently no White House press corps.

According to the New York Times, White House Correspondents' Association President Kelly O'Donnell said in a statement that the association was “deeply concerned” that CNN had refused its request to allow White House reporters into the studio, except for allowing one print reporter during commercial breaks.

“White House investigators are tasked with documenting, reporting on and testifying on behalf of the American people about the events and actions of the President,” O'Donnell said. “They exist to prepare for the what-ifs in a world where the unexpected happens.”

O'Donnell added that the Biden and Trump campaigns are not opposed to the WHCA's request.

As my colleague Clarissa Jean Lim points out, there has been an outcry over press access to tonight's debate. In addition to the White House Correspondents' Association, which has condemned the lack of representation on the debate floor, groups and advocates for black-owned media have also spoken out. The National Association of Black Journalists, the National Association of Newspaper Publishers, and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), who chairs the fundraising committee of the Congressional Black Caucus, have all criticized the fact that not a single black-owned media outlet will be represented at the debate, which is being held in the majority-black city of Atlanta.

In a statement, CNN claimed it was “unable to process additional certification requests after the June 7 application deadline.”

I disagree with MSNBC host Lawrence O'Donnell, who blasted the debate last night. He's right that the debate format bears no resemblance to the actual job of the president, but what about the rule that candidates' microphones are muted unless it's their turn to speak? I wholeheartedly support that.

Even if the rules weren't deliberately designed to hold Trump to account, it's hard to think of a defining crosstalk moment in any of the debates so far, which have instead fallen prey to unhelpful criticism that leaves moderators hoping to get the discussion back on track.

CNN already had to defend hosts Tapper and Bash from attacks from the Trump campaign this week, as supporters of the former president pushed unfounded claims that the debate was rigged against Republicans. Just hours before the debate, the network corrected a claim that the broadcast would be delayed by a minute or two for “editing.”

Tonight's debate will be tuned in by tens of millions of Americans, though exactly how many remains to be seen.

According to a recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Policy Research, 6 in 10 U.S. adults say they are “very” or “extremely” likely to watch the debate live, watch a video of it or listen to commentary about it.

But that's a fairly generous definition: If recent TV ratings are any guide, the full debate will likely be watched by somewhere between 60 and 70 million people.

That would make it one of the most-watched TV shows of the year, but it is unlikely to reach the all-time record of 84 million viewers who watched the first debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Tonight's ratings could be even lower, perhaps reflecting fatigue with the president and former president who faced off in two presidential debates in 2020.

Biden's “orders on the border” policies, unveiled last month, are paying off just in time for his biggest and longest live appearance yet. Despite criticism from the left for cutting off asylum seekers at the border, Biden's team credits recent policy changes with reducing interactions between migrants and Border Patrol agents by 40%. The Department of Homeland Security says apprehensions have been that low since January 2021.

New government data released this week has prepared Biden to go into the debate with a strong, albeit enforcement-focused message on immigration, allowing him to claim progress has been made in defending the southern border and to blame Trump for Congress' rejection of bipartisan immigration reform.

But will Biden also claim credit for continuing construction of the wall?

On Tuesday, New York state Judge Juan Marchand agreed to partially lift the gag order placed on Trump during his criminal trial in Manhattan. The ruling “lifted restrictions on Trump's right to comment about witnesses who testified during the trial and parts of the order barring him from speaking about the jury that convicted him, ruling that the witness and jury work has been completed and there is no risk of it affecting the trial,” NBC News reported.

At first, that may seem like a win for Trump, since he's apparently itching to go after witnesses like his former fixer Michael Cohen. But giving Trump more leeway on that front could backfire in tonight's debate, where he has limited time to make his case. If Trump chooses to go off the rails to lash out at his own trial, it could mean more time for viewers to hear about the fact that he's a convicted felon.

Trump has avoided publicly discussing his strategy for tonight's debate, saying he is preparing for it with interviews to right-wing media. Privately, Trump has been holding “policy refresher” sessions with aides, according to a report from The Bulwark. He also posted what appears to be snippets of his argument on the climate crisis to Truth Social this afternoon.

Trump is likely to take a different approach tonight, given that he acknowledged he fumbled during the first 2020 presidential debate, when he relentlessly interrupted and attacked Biden. Either way, NBC News reported that Biden is preparing for both a “crazy” Trump scenario and a more restrained Trump scenario.

Presidential debate moderators have long tried to stay on the sidelines, especially when it comes to fact-checking.

Polls show that a majority of Americans want hosts to call out false statements, yet in reality, people don't respond well when hosts fact-check their favorite candidates.

CNN has said that debate moderators will not seek to police either Biden or Trump, but veteran fact-checker Daniel Dale will conduct “in-depth fact-checks” for the network.

As I wrote about MSNBC earlier, the network could choose to present the facts first, presenting them clearly as they ask the questions, and using graphics and other elements to make them more memorable. This approach can help keep the moderator from getting too involved, while also making it clear when a candidate is avoiding facts in their answers.

As my colleague noted, RFK Jr. did not meet CNN's criteria for inclusion in tonight's debate. Kennedy has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission, and at least one legal scholar believes some of his complaints may have merit.

Specifically, Kennedy said that since neither Trump nor Biden have yet been formally nominated by their parties, technically Also He failed to qualify to appear on the ballot in enough states (mainly because this year's debates are taking place much earlier than usual, ahead of the party nominations) and was unable to get on the ballot in enough states to qualify for the debates.

While Kennedy's complaint appears to have been based on a careful reading of the rules, the FEC is also controlled by partisan allies who were likely wary of Kennedy and so it took them a while to step in and allow Kennedy to attend the debate, thus missing out on the opportunity to engage with his biggest public yet.

Tonight marks the third time Trump and Biden have faced off on the debate stage, and the first time they have shared the same space since then.

I looked back at the two 2020 presidential debates to see what they can tell us about what to expect, but ultimately, the main takeaway for me is that the debates are a time capsule that highlights just how much has changed between then and now.

For more on what that means for tonight's matchup, you can read my full essay here.