Within minutes of the end of this week's presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, it became clear to many that Biden, 81, may not be capable of winning the general election in November.
His failure to communicate clearly during the 90-minute debate drew harsh criticism from across the US political establishment, especially from Democrats.
“He's a very strong candidate for the presidency,” Van Jones, a former Obama administration official and CNN analyst, said of Biden.
Tonight he had a test to restore the faith of his country and his base, and he failed.
The convention is still a long way off, and there is still time for the party to find another way forward.
Biden criticized his predecessor several times over Trump's various personal indiscretions as well as the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, saying, “You have the moral sense of a stray cat.”
Read more: Confused answers and outright lies: The Biden-Trump debate illustrates the dire state of US politics
But that wasn't enough to convince many skeptics that Biden was capable of taking on the Trump team, much less carrying out the duties of America's commander in chief and the world's toughest job for the next four years.
If polls over the weekend show that Biden is losing support because of his poor debate performance (which seems likely), the effort to replace him as the Democratic nominee will become even more intense and ultimately unstoppable.
How will this situation unfold over the coming weeks?
Persuading Biden to step down
Despite harsh criticism from his party, Biden remains in control of his own destiny: He won 99% of the candidates in the Democratic primaries earlier this year and is eligible to receive the nomination, so the decision to move on to another candidate starts with Biden himself.
Barring dramatic health news or removal under the 25th Amendment, which allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to remove a president if he is “unable to discharge the duties of his duties,” Biden would have to agree to step down as his party's nominee.
The real story here is that Biden is a very stubborn man. You don't become president of the United States unless you have a lot of self-confidence. Biden may not be the cleverest or most talented politician, but he is stubborn and relentless in his ambition.
He ran for president twice before winning in 2020. A brain aneurysm, plagiarism charges, family troubles and personal tragedy didn't dampen his determination to run for the nation's highest office. The day after his debate with Trump, he pumped his fist at a campaign event in North Carolina and declared, “When I get knocked down, I get up.”
Persuading Biden to step down will require cooperation from his wife, First Lady Jill Biden, known as “Dr. Jill,” who oversees the president's daily life and public appearances.
Few Democratic elders have any influence over Biden — a list that probably begins and ends with former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — and it would be very hard to resist if they were to press the first lady and urge Biden to back down.
How can Biden save face?
If Biden drops out of the race before the Democratic National Convention in mid-August, his delegates would then vote at the convention for a new candidate, including Vice President Kamala Harris, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Notably, with the exception of Harris, none of these candidates have been publicly vetted during the Democratic primary campaign for the most highly scrutinized job in the world.
Read more: Joe Biden's debate disaster – who will replace him as the Democratic nominee in November?
If Biden drops out of the race after the convention, a new nominee would be selected at a special meeting of the Democratic National Committee, which represents about 500 party officials from states and territories across the country. (Whitmer is one of three vice chairs.)
The question Biden's aides may be asking themselves is which scenario would result in a more graceful and successful exit for Biden.
He may want to nominate a successor, but he will want to choose the way he has the most control, which might be the convention route, where he can at least assert the loyalty of primary delegates.
That would require an announcement in the coming weeks — the sooner the better — to garner as much public support as possible for the new nominee, who could significantly salvage his own reputation if his chosen successor beats Trump in November.
Things look tough for Democrats right now, but they may be in a stronger position in the long run. Trump is deeply unpopular with most Americans. The 2021 riots are a huge stain on his record. His vote share among likely voters in the November election is still likely to be below 50%.
Veteran Obama strategist David Axelrod warned Republicans after the debate.
If, for whatever reason, there is a change in the top candidates, Donald Trump is in trouble because the man who was there tonight is not an inspiring man.
A tough, agile Democratic candidate who can communicate clearly could be very successful in November.