of Presidential Election After the first election in 2024, the shift was toward Donald Trump. Presidential DebateTrump currently holds a three-point lead over President Biden across battleground states and a two-point lead nationally.
The big factor here is motivation, not just persuasion: Democrats are less likely than Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now.
As befits a race with two well-known candidates and a highly partisan electorate, more than 90% of Biden and Trump supporters say they aren't even considering the other candidate, just as they were before the debate, which helps explain why the race has remained fairly stable for months. Recall that Biden made some gains in June after Trump's victory. Convicted of a felony In New York, however, that did not dramatically change the race.
That said, today's priority battles mean Trump has an Electoral College advantage.
Meanwhile, half of those who voted for Biden in 2020 don't think he should run this year — and if they don't, they're less likely to say they'll vote in 2024 and more likely to choose Trump, a third-party candidate, or someone else.
Meanwhile, Trump said most Republicans felt encouraged after the debate. more They're likely to vote: Independents remain a tightly contested group, with Trump currently trailing them by a narrow margin.
Nationally, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely vote for president in 2024, and Republicans currently enjoy similar turnout advantages across battleground states, helping propel Trump to an advantage among those states' voters.
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are included in the national poll test, Trump's national lead over Biden grows to 4 percentage points. Kennedy gets roughly equal support from both candidates, but Biden gives up slightly more to Stein and West, lowering his overall support.
For many voters, the age of both candidates is an important factor, not just Biden's. When people see parity there, it favors Biden. Among those who say both, Biden leads Trump.
The problem for Biden is that he is trailing far behind among supporters for whom age is the only criterion.
Immediately after the discussion, According to a CBS News poll A growing number of voters believe Biden shouldn't run because he doesn't have the cognitive ability to do the job: Seven in 10 still say he shouldn't run. (That's down three points from just after the debate, possibly because the Biden campaign pushed back against the idea, but it's still the dominant view among voters, with a sizable share of Democrats – four in 10 – thinking this way.)
Biden trails Trump on many of the personal qualities he is perceived to be best: Trump is ranked higher as competent, tough and focused, and the president continues to be seen as more compassionate.
CBS News has named Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the battleground states most likely to determine the outcome of the Electoral College..
This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted among 2,826 registered voters nationwide between June 28-July 2, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race and education based on the U.S. Census' American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past voting. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 points. Battleground states are: AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI.
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