Top Line
Recent polls suggest many voters would support former first lady Michelle Obama's presidential bid, even as analysts and Democrats urge President Joe Biden to drop out of the race after his dismal performance in last week's debate.
Former first lady Michelle Obama has become the Democratic nominee to succeed President Joe Biden. … [+]
Key Facts
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday, Obama, the wife of former President Barack Obama, was the only Democrat to receive a higher approval rating than former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical November showdown, beating Trump 50% to 39%.
Meanwhile, the Ipsos poll had Biden in a close race with Trump, 40% to 40%, but Vice President Kamala Harris trailed Trump, 43% to 42%. California Governor Gavin Newsom trailed Trump, 42% to 39%. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer trailed Trump by a long way, but her approval rating of 41% beat Whitmer's 36%.
Michelle Obama has maintained favorable ratings among voters for over a decade: A 2011 Quinnipiac University poll found that more than three-fifths of voters gave her a favorable rating, higher than during her husband's first term in office (56.5%) and former President Bill Clinton (59.2%).
But despite Obama's time in the White House, her role as an advocate for healthy eating and fighting wealth inequality, and her popular memoir, “Becoming,” the former first lady has repeatedly and emphatically rejected the idea of running for president, stating unequivocally, “No, I'm not going to do it” at the end of her husband's second term in 2017.
She stepped up her opposition to the 2019 presidential election, urging voters to support Biden even as a political action committee was formed to support Obama as Biden's running mate.
Speculation about Michelle Obama running for president and a possible Biden-Michelle Obama pairing gained momentum in March, when CNN commentator Alisyn Camerota suggested Obama could be considered as a running mate and multiple media outlets reported that Democrats were quietly hinting at her campaigning amid concerns about Biden's age after Special Counsel Robert Hur reported him as a “senile man with declining memory.” (Obama again denied requests to run for president in a statement to NBC News.)
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Amazing facts
Obama has repeatedly said he has no intention of running for president, but some bettors aren't convinced. Betting platform PolyMarket gives him a 6% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee in 2024. That's higher than California Governor Gavin Newsom's 5% chance, according to PolyMarket.
Main Background
Biden has been questioned about his age since taking office, and has also been heavily criticized by President Trump, who has repeatedly accused Biden of declining intellectual acuity and physical ability and mocked the president's gaffes. But concerns about Biden's age grew among Democrats after Thursday's CNN debate, in which the 81-year-old appeared to struggle to answer questions on point, sometimes responding in an incoherent, raspy whisper. On the campaign trail the next day, Biden acknowledged that he was not “debating” as well as he had in the past, but vowed to continue in the race amid growing calls among Democratic pundits and lawmakers for Biden to step down, according to The New York Times. Biden also reportedly privately acknowledged that he could withdraw from the race if he performed poorly in an upcoming interview with ABC News' George Stephanopoulos, but the Biden administration denied the report as inaccurate. Two Democratic lawmakers, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) and Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Arizona), have called on Biden to end his campaign, and the editorial boards of prominent newspapers including the New York Times and the Chicago Tribune have also said Biden should end his 2024 campaign.
tangent
A post-debate CNN/SRRS poll showed Harris trailing Trump 47% to 45%, better than Biden (six points behind Trump), Whitmer (five), Newsom (five) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (four). Currently, FiveThirtyEight's weighted average poll has Biden trailing Trump by nearly two points in a November rematch (41.9% to 39.8%), but Harris' candidacy could pose a challenge for Democrats. FiveThirtyEight has her approval rating as low as 37.5%, just slightly higher than Biden (37.2%).
References
