Following his poor performance in the presidential debate with Republican candidate Donald Trump, calls are growing for President Joe Biden to step down as the Democratic nominee.
The 81-year-old president's shaky presentation at the June 27 debate raised questions and doubts about his ability to provide leadership for the next four years as president, during which Biden appeared to lose his train of thought and appeared exhausted and confused.
Since then, a damage control campaign has been waged, with the president and his supporters scrambling to assure voters that he is fit and will not step down.
But some in the Democratic camp appear to be unhappy, with a growing list of lawmakers calling for Biden to withdraw.
Here's what we know about how the debate affected Biden and who might succeed him.
Why did the debate have an impact on Biden?
The most significant impact of Biden's debate performance is that it has intensified doubts about his competence, which experts say now threatens his ability to win the presidential election in November. This has added to dissatisfaction with his administration's handling of inflation, the Gaza war and the migration crisis at the southern border with Mexico.
According to an Ipsos poll, voters' confidence in Biden's mental health fell from 28% to 20% after the presidential debate.
Presidential debates have been an important part of U.S. elections since they were first broadcast in 1960, and have played a crucial role in tilting voters towards better speakers.
An analysis by the Brookings Institution, a US think tank, found that voters' support had shifted by an average of 3.5 percentage points towards Trump after Sunday's debate. Before the debate, Trump had an average lead of 1.5 percentage points over Biden.
A separate Ipsos poll found voter support for both candidates was tied at 40 percent after the debate.
Analysts say even small changes could have a decisive effect in what is expected to be a closely fought election in a country deeply polarised along political ideologies.
Which Democrats are calling for Biden to be replaced?
Five Democratic House members have called for Biden to step down: Reps. Seth Moulton (Massachusetts), Lloyd Doggett (Texas), Raul Grijalva (Arizona), Mike Quigley (Illinois) and Angie Craig (Minnesota).
On Sunday, at an online meeting convened by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, another group of Democratic senators discussed ways to pressure Biden to step down, according to the Associated Press.
What happens if Biden withdraws from the election?
It's nearly unprecedented for a candidate to withdraw so close to an election, and Democrats would likely have to field another candidate.
President Biden could step down and appoint Vice President Kamala Harris to continue in the presidency, but Harris' approval rating is not much higher than Biden's and there are doubts as to whether she can defeat President Trump.
But campaign finance lawyer Steve Roberts told The Hill that while Harris will take over Biden's campaign finances, other candidates will be starting their campaigns from scratch.
One of the most likely scenarios is that the party would nominate another candidate to replace Biden if he were to step down before the Democratic National Convention, which runs from Aug. 19 to 22 in Chicago. The last time Democrats used this tactic was in 1968, when Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, then the leading candidate, was assassinated just weeks before the convention.
Democrats could also oust Biden by invoking the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, which says the vice president takes over if the president dies, becomes disabled or resigns. The vice president and a majority of Democrats in Congress can invoke the law by declaring to the speaker of the House and president of the Senate that the president is unfit for office and should be removed. The president can challenge the declaration. If the vice president and a majority of senators disagree, the issue goes to a two-thirds majority vote in Congress.
Can donors force Biden to resign?
Donors wield considerable power, but it's unclear how that will affect the chances of a nomination.
Some donors to the Biden campaign have joined the growing list of people calling on Biden to resign, including former PayPal CEO William “Bill” Harris.
Ms. Harris, who donated $620,000 to the Biden campaign in 2020, told reporters last week that Biden's departure was “inevitable.” She is now leading a group of donors who have pledged $2 million to a series of debates between the Democratic candidates that will serve as a cornerstone of selecting the next nominee.
Some have threatened to withhold donations to Democrats until Biden leaves office, putting pressure not just on the president but on the Democratic Party as a whole.
In an opinion piece for the website Deadline, Hollywood producer Damon Lindelof urged other donors to impose a “DEMbargo” tax.
Lindelof wrote: “If you get a message asking for cash, reply that you won't give them a penny and won't change your mind until you see the change on the top of the ticket.”
So far, no such calls have come from Biden's largest donors. The top three donors to the Biden campaign, according to the website Open Secrets, are the political action group Future Forward USA Action and the venture capital firms Greylock Partners and Sequoia Capital.
Who will replace Biden, and how will they fare against Trump?
Some have cited Michelle Obama as a likely candidate, but the former first lady has repeatedly said “no.” Yet polls show that 50% of people would vote for her if she were the nominee, 7 points more than Trump.
However, the more likely candidates are:
- Kamala HarrisVice President Harris, 59, is a direct replacement for Biden and is likely the front-runner. A former prosecutor and California senator, Harris could appeal to younger voters as well as black and other minority communities (Indian and Jamaican). As a vocal supporter of abortion rights, Harris could also rally support among women voters. Rep. Adam Schiff told reporters that Harris would win “by a landslide” if she ran. But Harris' approval ratings aren't much higher than Biden's or Trump's: 43% of likely voters said they would vote for her in an Ipsos poll, while another poll by 538 companies put her at 37%.
- Gavin Newsom: California Governor Newsom has been a longtime surrogate for Biden and Harris' campaigns, and has recently campaigned for both in the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Newsom previously expressed an intention to run in 2028, but has now emerged as a possible candidate to replace Biden. Some have suggested that Harris and Newsom could be the pair in November. An Ipsos poll gave him 39% approval rating.
- Gretchen Whitmer: In the battleground state of Michigan, Governor Whitmer is a star in the Democratic Party. The two-time governor rose to prominence in 2020 after clashing with then-President Trump over her strict COVID-19 lockdown policies. Her popularity in Michigan was solidified when she won 52 percent of the vote in the 2022 election. Whitmer was initially earmarked as the party's candidate for the 2028 election, but an Ipsos poll found that 36% of U.S. voters would vote for her if she ran. It's not yet clear which Democrats would support her.
- JB Pritzker: Pritzker has been the governor of Illinois since 2019 and has been pointed to as a possible successor to Biden, mainly due to his ability to stand up to Trump. He attracted attention with his fierce attacks on Trump during the former president's criminal trial in New York. After Trump was convicted in May, Pritzker called him a “felon” and an “old man with orange spray tan who fell asleep in court.” Pritzker comes from one of the wealthiest families in the United States and has a progressive platform that includes abortion rights, minimum wage and expanding access to health care. According to Ipsos, about 34% of voters say they would choose Pritzker.
- Josh Shapiro: Governor Shapiro of Pennsylvania previously served as the state's attorney general. He won handily in the mid-Atlantic battleground states in 2022. Since taking office, he has enjoyed high approval ratings and is seen as a calm leader, giving Democrats an advantage over Trump in battleground states. One issue that could divide voters is Israel's war in Gaza. As a Jew, Shapiro has enthusiastically voiced support for Israel, adding fuel to deep divisions within the Democratic Party. In a May survey, Shapiro's approval rating was 57 percent. vote According to the University of Siena and local media.
