President Joe Biden has stressed that he will continue his reelection campaign. If he does not, Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party's favorite to be the next candidate. It's almost an article of faith for many in the party that the vice president should be the runner-up. “The party should never neglect Harris. Whether she's in second place or first place, we should do everything we can to push her,” Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina told MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell last week. And he's not alone. Former President Donald Trump's camp has also begun attacking the vice president in anticipation of Harris' rise.
But it would be a big mistake to automatically crown Harris the winner. I never have A vice president's ascension to the presidency is not a guarantee of ascension to the highest office — only six vice presidents have been elected to the presidency, 12 of whom ran unsuccessfully for office and five of whom did not receive their party's endorsement — but some have argued that Harris' nomination should become a fait accompli once Biden leaves office.
I worked for Harris' 2020 presidential campaign. Being hired as the communications director for South Carolina at age 23 was a dream come true; it was my second job out of college. I had just joined the campaign when Harris announced her candidacy in Oakland, California, and felt the pull of history as 20,000 people clamored to meet her in person. A young, fresh face was there. And like me, she was Black. Finally, someone representing the future had arrived. myselfIt was exhilarating, but now it's not.
A primary is a test, and Harris, who ultimately withdrew before the Iowa caucuses, failed in the primary. That doesn't mean she'll never be president. Many candidates who lose in the presidential election have done better in subsequent elections. But they had to beat other candidates. The Trump-Biden debate showed the country the value of seeing candidates speak in an unscripted format. In the debate, the incumbent candidate's incoherent remarks and confused attitude surprised many in the party. The first time a Democratic candidate is tested in a tough race should not be when he faces Donald Trump in the general election.
A common justification for the party choosing Harris in Biden's absence is that not selecting her would be, or would be perceived as, racist, but black Democrats have shown time and again that their interests are real and their demands are strategic. Nominate a candidate who can winMany people were cold towards Barack Obama at the start of 2008. His volunteers in South Carolina tried to convince black voters that he could win nationally by touting his strong performance in overwhelmingly white Iowa.
During the 2019 presidential campaign, Harris clearly recognized the need to prove herself, and she took Obama's Iowa precedent very seriously. In South Carolina, where black voters make up half of the Democratic primary electorate, the Harris campaign garnered support from black activists and officials by touting an aggressive campaign in Iowa, where she hoped to finish in the top three. When the failure of her strategy in Iowa became apparent (a mid-November poll had only 3% of respondents choosing her as their first choice), she withdrew. In South Carolina, voters repeatedly told me they liked Harris but that Biden would have been better. They assumed Biden would win, and he did.
Given this history, I find it extremely ironic to bring up the benefits of black voters here. This seems more like a strategy on the part of Harris' supporters to make a potential challenger appear racist or indifferent to people of color than an argument about actual feasibility. Among Hillary Clinton's strongest supporters against Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries were prominent black Democratic women, including Mignon Moore, who has advised Harris. No one would call Moore a racist because she initially supported Clinton.
A related argument is that questioning the electability of the first black woman vice president is itself racist and sexist. Indeed, we know all too well how easily black women can be disregarded through no fault of their own. Pervasive prejudice creates a kind of mental prison, where we move through the world never knowing when we'll be ignored for mundane reasons.A rude receptionist or store clerk is just ruining your day—And when someone you meet thinks black women are stupid.
We can't know for sure. But it would be a mistake to dismiss all criticism as bias. Democrats would be so unbiased as to ask Harris what she would want in a replacement for Biden. No politician deserves their respect. The tough questions about Harris' candidacy will come up eventually, whether they are answered for the first time in a Democratic debate or when she takes on Trump.
But most importantly, Harris is not the person most at risk under a Trump presidency. If Democrats are genuinely worried that a second Trump presidency would harm black women, Any They use arguments other than electability to influence the choice of presidential candidate.
Another concern expressed by some Democrats is that a competitive nomination process would create irreparable chaos within the Democratic Party. A document circulating among some Democrats who support Harris argues that an open convention (or what the authors call a “chaos scenario”) would give them just two and a half months to “build a national operation” to “heal” the inevitable divisions within the party. But American presidential elections are strange and unnecessarily long. The UK just wrapped up a key election in six weeks. In France, President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election on June 9, and a month later the country held two rounds of voting. In Mexico, which has a presidential system similar to the US, candidates have 90 days to campaign.
You don't need to take more than a year to tell voters who you are and let them make up their mind. everytime Chaos and cruelty. Deep divisions. everytime A transition of power happens when someone loses. The Obama-Clinton, Clinton-Sanders, Trump-everyone primaries failed to stop partisans from backing their candidates in November. In 2008, Clinton didn't withdraw until June. Fear of chaos is a staple among the educated elite. But a peaceful transition of power must happen. rear There's confusing debate, dueling editorials, ad wars, behind-the-scenes politics, and no actual voting. in frontIn order to protect democracy, the democratic part of the process cannot be omitted.
And when you're lagging behind, like the polls show Democrats are lagging behind; increase Instead of reducing uncertainty, you increase it. Statistically, this may lead to a wider margin of defeat, but in reality, it increases the chances of victory.
As I recently reported, Democrats are being blasted for other reasons, ostensibly outlined in federal campaign finance and state voting access laws — that there is no one else to replace Biden other than Harris, or that Biden cannot be replaced at all. The implication that Biden's $240 million campaign budget would be wasted, or that no other Democrats would be considered for the nomination, is patently false. Money seems unlikely to be a deciding factor in the race.
Frankly, I don't think Harris is the favorite to beat Trump. Recent polls have exposed her weaknesses. She's in the unfortunate position of either helping to mask Biden's current situation or being too far from the scene to observe it closely. But perhaps the biggest concern is that the Biden administration, according to multiple sources, is not giving Harris the opportunity to lead. Of course, there's still a chance that Harris could come forward as a candidate. Harris has many strengths, including national name recognition, the ability to draw a clear contrast with Trump, and the likelihood of gaining the support of many Democratic insiders. But if that's enough, let her compete.
