recently luck I spoke at length with four business leaders (who requested anonymity so they could speak freely) about their views on the upcoming election. The interviewees were mostly moderates who had voted for candidates from both parties in the past, but all were disappointed with both Trump and Biden and marveled that the pre-election democratic process had forced voters into a false choice between two candidates, despite the high caliber of talent in both parties. In the piece, I asked them questions mainly about economic issues, including immigration, industrial and energy policy, and regulation.
This time, I asked three giants I was able to contact on short notice a different question: How did the bullet fired by Donald Trump on July 13, which killed two audience members, change the chances of Biden or his successor winning the 270 electoral votes? As in the first article, I assigned each interviewee the name of one of the presidents forever engraved on Mount Rushmore. “George” (Washington) is a top asset manager who served as multiple presidents. luck Of the 500 board members, “Tom” (Thomas Jefferson) is the former CEO of a major industrial company, and “Abe” (Lincoln) is the current CEO of a major investment firm with retail clients. I missed the original “Ted” (Theodore Roosevelt), but by coincidence, another legendary businessman who was dining with George when I called offered some astute observations from across the table. This man replaced the former “Ted,” took his name, founded one of the largest private companies in America in its field, and is now CEO of the second-largest company in the industry.
Not surprisingly, all respondents believe the shot, which missed the former president by an inch or two, improved Trump's chances of victory. But they're divided on how big a boost the aftermath will be, or how it will affect his policies and rhetoric, as well as Biden's brutal tone toward his previous opponents and the Democrats' chances of replacing the president as their nominee. Check out these executives' intuitions on how the sound of a rifle shot ringing out around the world could change the race.
Executive election predictions
George believes the symbolism of the event enhanced Trump's image as a strong man. “He didn't run away, he stood up and raised his arms in defiance and looked like a hero,” George said. “Now this race is completely Donald's to lose. He'll win handily if he just sticks to his message on the issues he dominates on, the border, law and order (people not feeling safe). He also needs to tone it down a bit, but it seems like he's finally figured it out.” George acknowledged that Biden has an edge on the abortion issue, and that his position is close to the current president's, but added, “Every politician has bad issues. It's Trump's bad issue, but it's not terrible.”
On the Democratic side, George believes the weekend earthquake has made Biden even more certain to come out on top. “Before this earthquake happened, many of the Republican leaders I spoke to were worried that a Democrat who would replace Trump would be much harder to beat than Biden. Democrats were thinking the same thing: if we replaced Biden, we would have a better chance of winning, and logically we should pick someone stronger. But after the shootings, that didn't matter as much. Trump showed Democrats that he's strong enough to beat anyone.” George believes this awakening has significantly reduced the previously quite likely chance that Republicans would pressure the president to step down.
When I called, George was sipping iced tea with his friend Ted. George leans Republican, but he also voted for Bill Clinton and would have voted “all in” for Joe Manchin or another centrist. Abe is a staunch Democrat, and his view of the party's predicament differs from his friend's. “For the Democratic Party, this is not catastrophic in itself,” he asserts. “But to win at all, we need new candidates. We can't have the same old thing. If there's anyone Trump can beat, it's Biden, but not a young, fresh option. We need someone to sell, like Gretchen Whitmer.” He emphasizes that Trump still has major weaknesses, including his felony convictions and various legal struggles. “The media can change things in an instant, as they do now, and we could go back to rehashing all of Trump's problems,” he says. “There's still a chance for the Democratic Party to win with the right new candidate.” Unlike his friend George, Ted thinks that Trump's moment of victory will only increase pressure on the Democratic brain trust to oust him. “The calls for Trump to step down will only get louder,” he said.
Temporary high
Tom warns that the public's positive reaction to Trump's heroism will not remain in the same awe-inspiring euphoria for a long time. “It's not necessarily clear how the public's reaction will play out in three months,” he warns. “For now, it's a small positive because Trump showed courage in his response afterwards.” The importance of the show, he argues, is to dramatize the comparison with Biden. “The president only made a gaffe that his vice president, Trump, was his running mate, and in the shooting incident, Trump responded bravely and energetically, sending a signal that 'you can trust me in a crisis.' What the public saw on Saturday will send a message to America that one person can handle a crisis, but the other can't.”
Tom, an independent but Republican-leaning, takes the unusual position that Biden should admit that he made inflammatory statements that he shouldn't have made. “He should be frank and say that he regrets calling Trump a 'target' and calling his opponent a threat to democracy. Those comments inflamed the left, but were the opposite of trying to build unity and calm the heated debate.” Ted doesn't think Biden will take such a bold step, even if it might help save his candidacy. “Biden said he would ease tensions between the two camps, but I don't think that argument between the two camps will work with the centrists that both candidates need to win. Someone attacked Trump, not Biden,” Tom added.
As for Biden's replacement, Tom says it won't happen. “First of all, they won't do it unless there's a catastrophe, because there's no time,” he points out. “It's too late now. Secondly, Harris, the obvious replacement, is not a better candidate than Biden.” For Tom, Trump's brave performance will extend his lead, but if he keeps his restraint and continues to insist on unity, that lead will only last until November 5th. If he were to return to his pre-shooting bellicose rhetoric and burn his opponents, he says, that might erase the goodwill generated by his bloody, brave appearance on TV screens in rural Pennsylvania.
A moment of change
Abe argues that the assassination attempt changed the outcome of the election and hopes it will encourage Trump to tone down his extreme stance. “The shooting was a show of strength for Trump in general and his passion to connect with voters after nearly being killed. It was a scene that Oliver Stone could have staged.” Abe is optimistic that Trump will see the near-death experience as “a test of his two-minute hero's journey from politician to politician.” A staunch Democrat, Abe believes Trump's views will help him win over new voters and that the additional support from independents will encourage him to take a more centrist stance. “His policies should follow the voters and this tragedy gives him the moral high ground to take a new position as a moderate.”
Trump may now feel more secure that he can win the election, or at least get support once he is in the White House, if he follows some of Biden's policies. “These include Biden's industrial policy, his semiconductor policy, and his support for Ukraine, which is essential to protect the United States,” Abe asserts. As for Biden, Abe says the president is “more and more incoherent by the week, and the pressure of the campaign is making it worse.” He believes that taking Biden's position after Trump's show of tenacity is now very unattractive for other candidates who will almost certainly lose. Abe acknowledges that Trump's hope of becoming an environmentalist in the new president, although it is now more likely, may not come to fruition. “It's likely that he will only be elevated to the political ranks temporarily, and after the election he will revert to the old Trump. They usually don't change even when they're over 80.”
Trump's election approval ratings have soared, according to our panel of leading thinkers, and they agree that this surge could put him back in the White House — if he can shed his “can't be helped” attitude and stop making the kind of outrageous statements that reminded us of the Donald Trump of old, who was defeated just four years ago.
