Shortly after Biden's announcement, a person familiar with the deliberations in Netanyahu's office said it was “too early” to say what effect the visit and Israel's war effort might have. Like others in this story, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitivity of the issue.
Netanyahu is due to address a joint session of Congress on Wednesday, but observers are transfixed by the turmoil of the presidential election, with Biden bowing to pressure to step down and Donald Trump emboldened after an assassination attempt. Fast Shifting Analysts said the political climate could embolden Israeli leaders at a critical time in Gaza ceasefire negotiations.
U.S.-backed talks in Cairo are reportedly gathering momentum, with the administration pressing a reluctant Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a deal to end the fighting in exchange for the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages being held by militants, dozens of whom Israeli officials believe are still alive.
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Netanyahu has been accused of prolonging the war for his own political gain, a charge he denies, and remains adamant that Israel must fight until Hamas is destroyed, even though his own generals say that goal is unattainable.
Netanyahu is officially neutral in American politics, but has long been criticized for aligning himself with the Republican Party, and has made no secret of his appreciation for Trump's moves during his presidency to shift U.S. policy significantly to the Israeli right, including by moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights.
Tensions between Netanyahu and Biden have worsened significantly in recent months as Israel has ignored repeated requests from the White House to provide more humanitarian aid to Gaza and better protect civilians. In May, the administration suspended supplies of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel for use in populated areas.
More than 38,900 Palestinians have been killed in the war, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians but says the majority of the dead are women and children.
Some of the prime minister's top aides have begun to more openly root for Trump, casting the ceasefire talks as a partisan issue for the U.S. Last week, Netanyahu's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, warned colleagues that approving the hostage deal would be “a blow to Trump and a win for Biden,” according to Israeli media reports. He has argued that any agreement should wait until November.
Some political observers say Biden's weakening position in recent weeks has already begun to loosen Netanyahu's grip in Gaza.
Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said U.S. pressure on Israel to curb its military operations has waned in recent weeks. The administration has done little publicly to criticize the escalating attacks in civilian-dense areas, including Mawashi, which Israel has designated a humanitarian zone. Last week, a major attack targeting Hamas leader Mohammed Deif killed at least 90 people, health officials said.
“The pressure's off now,” Oren said before Biden's announcement. “It's just not the same as it was before.”
One reason Biden's team pulled back is because the strikes signal that Hamas is open to a deal, Oren said, adding that what the president “really needs is a diplomatic win that shows he can achieve great things internationally.”
Before Biden's departure, U.S. administration officials had denied that Netanyahu had been significantly emboldened by Biden's struggles, but acknowledged that Biden's mounting problems had made him tougher. Diplomats familiar with the discussions said Netanyahu had made last-minute demands in recent days that U.S. negotiators fear could derail the Cairo talks.
Under the new terms, Israel will not agree to withdraw its troops from the Philadelphia corridor along the Egyptian border, said the diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the delicate ongoing negotiations. Israel also will not allow unrestricted access for Gaza residents wanting to return to their homes in the north, and has insisted that its army be allowed to set up checkpoints to monitor the movements of displaced people.
“The fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has put these conditions out there means he feels more confident,” Oren said.
Israeli officials said Netanyahu was undoubtedly keeping a close eye on the tumultuous U.S. election campaign. “Everyone agrees Biden is weak,” said one person familiar with the discussions in the prime minister's office.
But Netanyahu was more focused on his own political agenda, they said.
The prime minister is caught between an Israeli public angry over the failure of the hostage release deal and his far-right coalition partners who have threatened to topple the government if he stops fighting Hamas. In recent days, eight lawmakers from Netanyahu's Likud party published a list of “red lines” they would not support in any deal, including Israel's withdrawal from central Gaza and the border with Egypt.
Netanyahu will likely work hard to keep his coalition partners under control until July 28, when the Israeli parliament goes into a three-month recess.
“The next few weeks will be crucial,” said a person familiar with the deliberations. “At this point, the pressure from within is much greater than the pressure from the states.”
Prior to Biden's move, Netanyahu had no plans to meet with Trump during his visit to Washington, or with Vice President Harris, whose endorsement by Biden on Sunday put her at the top of his list of potential candidates, the officials said.
Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, said the prime minister was well aware that Israel would be negotiating with Biden for the remainder of his term, whatever the outcome of the November election.
Netanyahu's visit will be his best chance at demonstrating bipartisanship, unlike his controversial 2015 speech to Congress in which he blasted the Obama administration's Iran nuclear deal at the urging of Republicans, but that escalation came just weeks before Israeli elections and was aimed at domestic political influence, Plesner noted.
“The situation is completely different now,” he said. “Prime Minister Netanyahu needs President Biden every day.”
While many Democrats were outraged by Netanyahu's 2015 visit and many plan to boycott the speech, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that he had received a “rough preview” of Netanyahu's speech last week, but that it was not intended to be partisan in tone, but rather focused on “how the United States and Israel are coordinating on confronting terrorist threats” and “regional challenges.”
But Sullivan acknowledged that “like us, they will continue to work on the speech until the very end.”
“The prime minister has been adamant that the administration will continue to support Israel and Gaza, and that Israel will continue to support Israel in the future,” the statement said.
“It's impossible to be certain how this will play out,” the U.S. official said.
Hudson reported from Washington.