- Hezbollah launched a rocket attack on Saturday that Israel said killed 12 children.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there would be a “heavy price” for the attack.
- Israel has not yet retaliated, but experts say it is only a matter of time before it does so.
Tensions rose in the Middle East on Saturday after Israel said militant group Hezbollah launched a deadly rocket attack on a football stadium.
The Israel Defense Forces said 12 children were killed by Hezbollah's Iranian-made Falak-1 rocket.
The paper said the attack was launched from southern Lebanon towards the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-controlled part of the Golan Heights.
The Israeli air force said Sunday that several commanders were meeting to consider their next steps, but gave few hints about what they might do specifically.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Hezbollah would pay a “heavy price.”
After some 36 hours, Israel had not fired back.
The Israel Defense Forces declined to comment to Business Insider.
On the brink of war
Tensions were already rising in the region before Hezbollah's deadly rocket attack.
Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based, Iranian-backed militant group, have been exchanging regular gunfire since Hamas launched a cross-border terror attack from Gaza on October 7.
Last month, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said: Said Hezbollah's “increasing” attacks “could trigger a broader escalation, with devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region.”
Following the Hezbollah rocket attack, National Security Council spokesman Adrian Watson said on Sunday the United States wanted to restore peace and was in “ongoing consultations” with Israel and Lebanon.
“What happened today could be the trigger we've been worrying about and trying to avoid for 10 months,” an anonymous U.S. official told Axios on Saturday.
Expanding regional conflicts
Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at the London School of Oriental and African Studies, predicted a significant military response from Israel.
She said the counterattack would likely be “emboldened” and “not necessarily limited to Lebanon.”
“Hezbollah is also active in Syria and Israel is likely to attack Hezbollah military facilities on a larger scale than before,” she told BI.
Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria in April, raising fears it could spark a wider regional conflict.
Widespread concern about rising tensions was eventually eased after Iran launched a counterattack that appeared to be ineffective.
A broader war in the region remains unlikely, Khatib said, because it would be in no one's interest and would harm Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and the United States, she said.
“The United States is seeking to reduce, not increase, its military involvement in the Middle East,” she said.
Thomas Juneau, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa's School of Public and International Affairs, made a similar statement in an X post on Sunday.
“Israel will retaliate quickly and violently,” he said, adding that it would “bend the rules of the game.”
But he said he wanted to strike in a way that avoided “uncontrollable escalation.”
“Hezbollah will go along with the dangerous choreography,” he added.
In another X post on Sunday, Juneau noted that Israel and Iran came close to war when tensions rose in the region in April.
“It was a close call, but tensions quickly subsided,” he said, adding that the current situation “seems to be dangerous but I expect something similar to happen again.”
Enia Krivin, senior director of the Israel Program and National Security Network at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Hezbollah's attacks would not go unnoticed.
“What that plan will look like and when it will be implemented is the million-dollar question,” she told BI.
