The state is the only political battleground state with a primary on Tuesday and has the largest number of voters in a group that includes Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington.
While the results may be unexpected, there are other important dynamics at play as voters across the state head to the ballot box.
Biden's campaign hopes to use the primary to energize the tenuous coalition of liberals, black voters and moderates that powered his narrow 2020 victory.
His supporters also want to sideline an early protest campaign over Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war, calling on his critics to cast blank votes in Tuesday's election.
The initiative saw more than 363,000 voters in Michigan and five Super Tuesday states vote for “non-commitment” or similar options to pressure Biden to take a tougher stance on Israel. It started in response to this.
Trump hopes to show strength in primary voting in states that have troubled him in the past. But many of the 284,000 Republicans who voted early did so before former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley left the campaign, so there could be a small but powerful bloc of opponents. There is.
Credit: TNS
Credit: TNS
And both campaigns are hoping to boost turnout in a race where many voters have barely registered, now that Biden and Trump's main rivals have decided not to run. It's not an easy job.
“If you're a normal citizen right now, you're probably thinking about soccer practice or Little League baseball or softball,” said Charles Block, a political scientist at the University of Georgia.
“We won't really get involved until we get there in November, and we're going to see hundreds of millions of dollars spent in November,” Block said.
Indeed, mobilizing voters is already proving to be a challenge. Nearly 440,000 people cast primary votes during early voting, far fewer than in the 2020 primary, when Democratic open contests increased voter participation.
Approximately 284,000 Georgians have chosen to vote Republican, while approximately 155,000 have cast Democratic votes. Georgia law allows registered voters to participate in either party's primary elections, regardless of their political leanings.
Aides to both men hope that rival rallies held by Biden and Trump across Georgia on Saturday will refocus attention on the upcoming vote and serve as an unofficial start to the general election campaign.
“Saturday's events and the State of the Union were a way for supporters in the state to re-energize,” said Jonae Wartel, Georgia senior adviser for the Biden campaign. “The timing couldn't have been better. It gives us an opportunity to energize grassroots voters.”
Credit: Steve Schaefer/AJC
Credit: Steve Schaefer/AJC
So did Mr. Trump, who drew thunderous applause at a rally in Rome when he said Georgia would help formalize the party's nomination.
“This is a movement like no one in this country has ever seen,” he said.
As of Monday, Trump was 140 delegates short of the 1,215 delegates needed to win the nomination at this summer's Republican convention. With 161 delegates at stake in four states on Tuesday, the former president could win all 59 of Georgia's delegates if he performs well.
Meanwhile, Biden needs 102 delegates to secure the 1,968 delegates needed for a Democratic victory. With 254 Democratic delegates up for grabs on Tuesday, the president appears likely to sweep away 108 offers from Georgia.
Confirming the nomination with Georgia's support would be a twist of fate for Trump supporters.
Trump's loss in 2020 makes him the first Republican to lose Georgia since 1992, telling Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger that he will receive 11,870 votes over Biden. His demands are the focus of a Fulton County election trial.
His obsession with defeat hurt the chances of Republican incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue in the state's 2021 Senate runoff elections. And in 2022, Trump suffered further setbacks when all four of his handpicked challengers to Republican incumbents in Georgia lost their primaries, and newcomer Herschel Walker to the Senate seat lost to Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. I was disappointed.
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC/TNS
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC/TNS
Georgia is poised to re-enter the melting pot of an already awful race.
Mr. Biden and his allies have already spent tens of millions of dollars on air time in Georgia and several other competitive states. A pro-Trump super PAC is firing back with a new TV spot that asks, “If Biden wins, can we survive until 2029?”
Karen Owen, a political scientist at the University of West Georgia, said on the “Politically Georgia” podcast that the real challenge is to win over centrist voters who won't be focused on the race until October.
“Will we see any other surprises from these candidates by then?” she said. “They're going to have to work really hard to keep up the energy.”
