we are here emerging trends We try not to be partisan, but that doesn't mean we shy away from the political realities that affect the cannabis industry. Today we'll focus on the US presidential election, which will take place this November. Will the results matter to the cannabis industry? If you compare Oval Office occupancy to control of Congress, it's probably less than you think.
Cannabis in Biden's second term
Since Biden's second term will be a continuation of the existing administration, it should be easy to make some predictions about what it will look like for the cannabis industry. But a lot of developments happened in the second half of Biden's first term, making it a little harder to predict what will happen in another four years. For example, the Biden administration (1) granted clemency for federal convictions for simple marijuana possession; (2) took significant steps toward rescheduling marijuana under the Controlled Substances Act; (3) recently encouraged the DEA to change the marijuana use schedule “as soon as possible'', including at a personal request from the Vice President; All of this comes in light of the president's mention of rescheduling marijuana in the latest State of the Union address.
Against these seemingly progressive moves, we need to consider President Biden's less progressive positions on cannabis issues in the past. As we wrote in 2020, he championed several “tough on crime” bills during his long tenure in the Senate. For example, Biden introduced the Comprehensive Drug Enforcement Act in 1986, which sought to establish a Cabinet-level office to coordinate federal drug enforcement policy, and in 1993, Biden Sponsored the Violent Crime Control Act and the Law Enforcement Act. Hover over the Crime Bill 1994. Given this track record, one might reasonably conclude that Biden would not spend political capital on cannabis reform.
Cannabis under second Trump term
To be honest, this is hard to pinpoint. Former President Trump has offered few clues about whether he has any kind of north star on the marijuana issue. However, we have the benefit of his first term and statements made during it to help us assess how the cannabis industry will fare under the second Trump administration.
Here's what we wrote about President Trump's chances for a second term in the lead-up to the 2020 election.
Given President Trump and his administration's drug policy decisions during his first term, the answer is far from obvious. These decisions range from signing a bill federally legalizing marijuana after decades of prohibition on the one hand to appointing a fierce opponent of marijuana legalization as U.S. attorney general on the other. These decisions paint a picture of the potential conflict between the president, who once said all drugs should be legal, and current policy on marijuana.
To determine what President Trump's second term means for marijuana legalization, it is necessary to distinguish between the president's comments and the administration's actions. While the president has made conflicting comments on marijuana legalization throughout his term, the administration has offered a more stable outlook on the direction Trump will take in his second term. The short answer seems to be about the same.
One of the most important cannabis developments to occur during the Trump administration's first term was the signing of the 2018 Farm Bill. The move legalized hemp and created a huge market for the crop, which had been banned as a federally controlled substance for more than 80 years. The Trump administration's USDA is dedicating significant resources to implementing reforms to further support hemp.
Many industry advocates were troubled by then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions' decision to rescind the Kohl Memorandum, an Obama-era policy of non-federal intervention in states that legalized marijuana; The alleged effects have not materialized. In fact, current Attorney General William Barr has said that he is not interested in disrupting “entrenched expectations” regarding Cole memorandum-era policies, even if they are no longer in effect. Given the lack of major federal raids on legal cannabis businesses at the state level, it seems reasonable to assume that the federal government's policy of inaction on state legalization will continue. .
During his campaign, Trump painted himself as a criminal justice reform candidate rather than directly addressing marijuana policy. He has focused his message on the First Step Act, which ushered in federal sentencing reform for certain drug crimes.
President Trump's own comments, both public and private, have been controversial regarding his views on marijuana legalization. For example, in 2018, when asked if he supported bipartisan legislation that would allow states to set their own cannabis policies, the president said, “I really do.” But this comes as the president made comments at a campaign rally in August 2020 in which he urged Republicans not to put marijuana legalization efforts on state ballots, out of concern that it would increase Democratic turnout in the election. This is in contrast to
During his first term, President Trump has shown himself to be more ambivalent about cannabis than a supporter. The president probably doesn't think marijuana should be illegal, but he also seems willing to use the issue as a cudgel to rally his base. President Trump's second term will likely mean something similar: a tepid and sometimes inconsistent policy on cannabis.
“Cannabis is ambivalent.” I forget which one of us it was. emerging trends The contributors used this phrase, and I think it is an accurate assessment of President Trump's position today.
conclusion
We wrote the following article almost four years ago, and the trend line has continued ever since.
The general public appears to have some support for cannabis reform. Polls of American adults show a majority support legalizing marijuana for medical or adult use. Legalization enjoys majority support in both parties, with nearly four in five Democrats and more than half of Republicans supporting legalization. In an increasingly polarized political landscape, this bipartisan support should give Democrats and Joe Biden some confidence that cannabis reform will gain public support.
While we were talking specifically about the prospect of a Biden presidency at the time, we believe that same spirit is as true today as ever, regardless of the occupant of the White House. At the outset of this article, while we are categorically trying to avoid taking a partisan position, we will call a spade a spade. Americans support the liberalization of cannabis. Neither Trump nor Biden personally consider this issue a top priority, but they clearly have no intention of standing in the way of liberalization.
In the end, all this discussion may have been for nothing. Presumably, the outcome will be the same no matter who calls 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue home on January 21, 2025. Perhaps what really matters is who controls Congress, who controls the state capitols, and who controls the judicial branch that interprets the laws.
Either way, we promise to keep you updated here over the next 7+ months. emerging trends. Thank you for stopping by.
