ANALYSIS — First-quarter fundraising totals once again show that Senate candidates are raising dramatically more money in their campaigns than just two decades ago, with candidates in top Senate races are now approaching the amount presidential candidates spent in the early 2000s.
Growth has been gradual, but as a result we have become effectively insensitive to the amount of money spent on controlling the Senate.
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown announced he has raised $12 million in the first three months of this year for his re-election bid in Ohio. That's close to the $12.9 million Republican Richard Burr spent on his entire campaign to win a competitive open seat in North Carolina in 2004. In the same cycle, Republican John Thune spent less than $15 million to unseat Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota.
Daschle and Thun spent a combined $36 million in the 2004 presidential election. By comparison, this cycle, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and likely Republican nominee Tim Sheehy spent half that amount in 2023, before the calendar officially switches to election year.
2022 Republican candidates Blake Masters of Arizona and J.D. Vance of Ohio were objectively mediocre fundraisers, but they have raised and spent more than $15 million, and in 2004 In 2019, she was expected to be the top fundraiser after Daschle. Democrat Barack Obama spent just under $15 million on a successful Senate campaign in Illinois.
Of the 11 races that the Rothenberg Political Report rated as competitive in 2004, the two major party candidates spent more than $20 million combined: South Dakota (Daschle vs. Thune); There were only three races: North Carolina (Barre vs. Erskine Bowles); ) and Florida (Mel Martinez vs. Rep. Kathy Castor's mother, Betty Castor, D-Florida). Today, any credible Senate candidate in a top-level race would have individually cleared the $20 million fundraising hurdle in that cycle.
Some Senate candidates are now raising money at once presidential levels.
In 2022, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona raised and spent $92.7 million for reelection. That's more money than presidential candidates spent in this country's first 230 years. This is more than the combined total of 11 Republican candidates in the 2004 Senate race ($89 million).
There is a background to the presidential number. From 1976 to 2008, candidates from major political parties received public funds by limiting their spending in general elections to that amount and agreeing not to accept donations from individuals.
In the 1976 general election, President Gerald Ford and former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter each received $21.8 million. In 2008, Sen. John McCain received $84.1 million for the general election, but Obama recognized that he could raise more than the allotted amount and did not want to be bound by the limit, so he decided not to use public funds. refused to accept. Since then, candidates from the major parties have never looked back.
But just four years earlier, President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry each received $74.6 million for the general election. Democratic Sen. John Fetterman spent more than $75 million to win his 2022 race in Pennsylvania.
It is clear that the winners are not the only ones raising large sums of money.
Ohio Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan spent $57.7 million in his unsuccessful 2024 Senate race. That's about $5 million more than the six Democratic candidates who did not select Tom Daschle's name in the 2004 nomination race. This is more than the $55 million in public funds allocated to both President George H.W. Bush and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton in the 1992 presidential election.
Of course, there is also outside spending from party committees and leadership-aligned super PACs in major legislative races. However, fundraising for candidates is extremely important in the advertising war. That's because while candidates are offered the lowest price for TV ads, outside organizations are often charged two to three times as much for the same number of ads.
As a result, Republicans are focusing on developing better-funded candidates by raising money and raising money from their own bank accounts. Overall, Republican candidates are still trailing Democratic incumbents, but the gap could narrow over the next six months.
The Republicans need to win a net two seats to gain a Senate majority, but since the new vice president could break the tie vote, if the Republicans win one seat and take the White House, they will take control of the Senate. Can be done. Republicans are likely to win West Virginia, so former President Donald Trump could take control if he wins the White House. But if President Joe Biden wins re-election, Republicans will need to win the second seat to give Democrats a majority.