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(KSTP) – For the third consecutive poll, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical dead heat.
The latest exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of Minnesota voters shows Biden leading Trump 44% to 42%, with 11% saying they would vote for another candidate and 4% saying they would vote for another candidate. is undecided. The confidence interval for this poll is ±4.9%, as is the margin of error.
“A state that plays for two points in a presidential year will be a competitive state,” said Stephen Shear, a political analyst at Carleton University. “Both campaigns will probably be on the lookout.”
Most pollsters and political commentators do not consider Minnesota to be one of the swing states that will determine the presidential winner. These states are generally thought to be Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Scheer said three consecutive KSTP/SurveyUSA polls have shown Biden leading by 3 points, 4 points and 2 points, all within the margin of error. , says the situation may change.
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“Many experts and pollsters assume Minnesota will be a safe Democratic state in 2024,” Scheer said. “This poll shows that's not the case.”
In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump in Minnesota by 1.5 points, and in 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 7 points.
In this poll, 39% of respondents identified as Democrats, 36% as Republicans, and 22% as independents.
With both Biden and Trump struggling with low approval ratings, Minnesota could become more popular among independents. Trump and Biden enjoy 87% support from their respective parties, but Biden holds a 36% to 33% lead among independents.
There is also a large gender gap, with Biden leading by 15 points among women and Trump by 10 points among men. But his 25% of independents prefer an “other” candidate and 5% are undecided.
Geographically, the 2024 race is a tale of two Minnesotans. Biden holds a 49% to 34% edge in the Twin Cities and inner-ring suburbs. But Trump has a large lead elsewhere, with a 13-point lead in southern Minnesota, 28 points in western Minnesota and 8 points in northeastern Minnesota.
“There's not a single Minnesotan in this poll. We have two,” Shea said. “The Twin Cities and the inner-ring suburbs are blue and Democratic, and the farther you get from there, the more conservative and Republican the state becomes.”
Biden has the highest approval ratings among voters who say abortion, gun control and health care are the most important issues. Mr. Trump performs best among voters whose top issues are the economy, immigration, and taxes.
SurveyUSA interviewed 825 Minnesota adults from April 3rd to 7th. Among adults, 721 people were confirmed to be registered to vote. SurveyUSA determined that 608 of his registered voters are likely to vote in his November general election. The survey was conducted online using a non-probability sample of randomly selected online adult panelists by Lucid Holdings, LLC in New Orleans. Total survey respondents were weighted to the U.S. Census' Her CPS targets for gender, age, race, and education.
The full survey results can be found below.
