Caracas Venezuela's government faces its toughest electoral test in decades in the July 28 presidential election that could secure another six years for President Nicolás Maduro and bring an end to the self-proclaimed socialist policies that once promoted successful anti-poverty programs but whose continued mismanagement has plunged the country into an ongoing economic crisis.
Opposition politicians have boycotted elections for years, viewing them as rigged, but as the government's popularity wanes, former rivals are banding together to try to change the government at the polls.
The participation of millions in opposition primaries, opinion polls and mass political rallies indicates that the Unity Platform coalition has significant support among voters. But it must overcome advantages built into the system by Venezuela's ruling United Socialist Party, from restrictions on opposition campaigning to tight government control over the electoral process. Moreover, many question whether votes will be counted fairly.
Let's look at the Venezuelan voting results.
Are the elections fair?
Maduro's government has promised opposition leaders that it would allow them to take part in the elections but has continued to take a hardline stance, including declaring opposition primaries illegal and blocking some of the most popular leaders from voting.
European Union observers called recent local elections “the most balanced in two decades,” but said pro-government candidates received preferential treatment, including state funding and preferential access to gasoline, making it easier for them to campaign amid widespread shortages. As in previous elections, ruling party organizers handed out food and other state-controlled benefits in exchange for people voting at checkpoints near polling stations.
Election officials have rescinded an EU invitation to monitor the elections, scheduled for late May, citing sanctions imposed by the 27-nation bloc.
The ruling party also exercises tight control over the voting system, with its supporters controlling the National Election Commission. Many polling stations are scattered, making them difficult for the opposition to monitor. In this election, about a third of registered voters were assigned to polling stations with only one or two voting machines.
The ruling party traditionally won the majority of votes in these smaller polling stations, and in this election the Election Commission added 1,700 single voting machine centers. Reports of attempts by the ruling party to coerce and control the vote in previous elections have mainly related to these single or dual voting machine centers.
How does voting work?
The country's voter population is estimated at around 17 million.
Another 4 million Venezuelans living abroad are registered to vote, but only about 69,000 meet the criteria to vote abroad. Many migrants do not register to vote because of government requirements for registration that are costly and time-consuming, a lack of information, and a requirement that they prove legal residence in the host country. Venezuelans living in the United States have no way to vote because the country's consulate in the United States has been closed since the two countries severed diplomatic ties in 2018.
Almost all polling stations are located in public schools and will be guarded by the military on Election Day.
Venezuelans vote using electronic voting machines that print out a vote record and a paper receipt that is supposed to be placed in a ballot box inside the polling station, but ruling party officials have previously pressured voters to smuggle it out as proof of their support.
Will the votes be counted fairly?
Allegations of voting fraud have undermined confidence in the system, leading many voters to believe there is no guarantee the government will accept or recognize the results, even if a majority votes against Maduro.
None of these fraud allegations have been verified by an independent third party.
After the December referendum, the government said more than 10 million voters gave an overwhelming vote in support and claimed turnout was high despite widespread reports of empty polling stations. The electoral commission did not release paper tally results generated by voting machines.
In 2017, an international software company that had provided voting technology to Venezuela for more than a decade said voter turnout may have been manipulated in key legislative elections. The company, Smartmatic, reported that the official voter turnout released by election authorities was wrong by at least 1 million people. The government has since switched to using new voting machines designed domestically.
Still, opposition leaders are hopeful that if they can secure a significant number of votes, regime allies will choose to defect. Experts say this could depend on factors such as the margin of victory for the opposition, international pressure and concessions, and whether international powers such as the United States offer Maduro an exit strategy that is acceptable to him.
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